Karsan Otomotiv (Turkey) Market Value
| KARSN Stock | TRY 12.53 0.14 1.10% |
| Symbol | Karsan |
Karsan Otomotiv 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Karsan Otomotiv's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Karsan Otomotiv.
| 11/21/2024 |
| 12/21/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Karsan Otomotiv on November 21, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi or generate 0.0% return on investment in Karsan Otomotiv over 30 days. Karsan Otomotiv is related to or competes with Ford Otomotiv, Tofas Turk, Hektas Ticaret, Eregli Demir, and Aksa Akrilik. Karsan Otomotiv Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. manufactures and sells motor vehicles and spare parts in Turkey More
Karsan Otomotiv Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Karsan Otomotiv's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.20) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 16.39 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.87) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.14 |
Karsan Otomotiv Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Karsan Otomotiv's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Karsan Otomotiv's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Karsan Otomotiv historical prices to predict the future Karsan Otomotiv's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.14) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.52) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.60) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (10.59) |
Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi Backtested Returns
Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi has Sharpe Ratio of -0.17, which conveys that the firm had a -0.17% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Karsan Otomotiv exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Karsan Otomotiv's Mean Deviation of 1.9, risk adjusted performance of (0.14), and Standard Deviation of 2.76 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.0493, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Karsan Otomotiv's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Karsan Otomotiv is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi has a negative expected return of -0.48%. Please make sure to verify Karsan Otomotiv's treynor ratio, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the Kurtosis and day typical price , to decide if Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.28 |
Weak reverse predictability
Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Karsan Otomotiv time series from 21st of November 2024 to 6th of December 2024 and 6th of December 2024 to 21st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi price movement. The serial correlation of -0.28 indicates that nearly 28.0% of current Karsan Otomotiv price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.28 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.83 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.03 |
Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Karsan Otomotiv stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Karsan Otomotiv's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Karsan Otomotiv returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Karsan Otomotiv has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Karsan Otomotiv regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Karsan Otomotiv stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Karsan Otomotiv stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Karsan Otomotiv stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Karsan Otomotiv Lagged Returns
When evaluating Karsan Otomotiv's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Karsan Otomotiv stock have on its future price. Karsan Otomotiv autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Karsan Otomotiv autocorrelation shows the relationship between Karsan Otomotiv stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Karsan Otomotiv Sanayi.
Regressed Prices |
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Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Karsan Stock
Karsan Otomotiv financial ratios help investors to determine whether Karsan Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Karsan with respect to the benefits of owning Karsan Otomotiv security.