Morningstar Municipal Bond Fund Market Value
| MSTPX Fund | USD 10.08 0.02 0.20% |
| Symbol | Morningstar |
Morningstar Municipal 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Morningstar Municipal's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Morningstar Municipal.
| 01/09/2023 |
| 11/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Morningstar Municipal on January 9, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Morningstar Municipal Bond or generate 0.0% return on investment in Morningstar Municipal over 690 days. Morningstar Municipal is related to or competes with Pimco Global, Dodge Cox, Ms Global, Morgan Stanley, and Federated Global. The fund will invest at least 80 percent of its net assets, plus borrowings for investment purposes, in securities of mu... More
Morningstar Municipal Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Morningstar Municipal's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Morningstar Municipal Bond upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.383 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.56) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.1 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.30) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.2991 |
Morningstar Municipal Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Morningstar Municipal's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Morningstar Municipal's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Morningstar Municipal historical prices to predict the future Morningstar Municipal's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0307 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0119 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.29) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.09) |
Morningstar Municipal Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Morningstar Mutual Fund to be very steady. Morningstar Municipal has Sharpe Ratio of 0.08, which conveys that the entity had a 0.08% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Morningstar Municipal, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please verify Morningstar Municipal's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0307, downside deviation of 0.383, and Mean Deviation of 0.1137 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.016%. The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.0573, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Morningstar Municipal are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Morningstar Municipal is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.25 |
Weak reverse predictability
Morningstar Municipal Bond has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Morningstar Municipal time series from 9th of January 2023 to 20th of December 2023 and 20th of December 2023 to 29th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Morningstar Municipal price movement. The serial correlation of -0.25 indicates that over 25.0% of current Morningstar Municipal price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.25 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.04 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
Morningstar Municipal lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Morningstar Municipal mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Morningstar Municipal's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Morningstar Municipal returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Morningstar Municipal has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Morningstar Municipal regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Morningstar Municipal mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Morningstar Municipal mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Morningstar Municipal mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Morningstar Municipal Lagged Returns
When evaluating Morningstar Municipal's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Morningstar Municipal mutual fund have on its future price. Morningstar Municipal autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Morningstar Municipal autocorrelation shows the relationship between Morningstar Municipal mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Morningstar Municipal Bond.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Morningstar Mutual Fund
Morningstar Municipal financial ratios help investors to determine whether Morningstar Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Morningstar with respect to the benefits of owning Morningstar Municipal security.
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