Nicholas Fund Inc Fund Market Value

NICSX Fund  USD 100.63  0.67  0.66%   
Nicholas Fund's market value is the price at which a share of Nicholas Fund trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Nicholas Fund Inc investors about its performance. Nicholas Fund is trading at 100.63 as of the 16th of December 2024; that is 0.66 percent decrease since the beginning of the trading day. The fund's open price was 101.3.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Nicholas Fund Inc and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Nicholas Fund over a given investment horizon. Check out Nicholas Fund Correlation, Nicholas Fund Volatility and Nicholas Fund Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Nicholas Fund.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between Nicholas Fund's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Nicholas Fund is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nicholas Fund's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Nicholas Fund 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Nicholas Fund's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Nicholas Fund.
0.00
11/16/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 30 days
12/16/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Nicholas Fund on November 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Nicholas Fund Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Nicholas Fund over 30 days. Nicholas Fund is related to or competes with Large Cap, Virtus Nfj, Pace Large, Transamerica Large, Dunham Large, Jhancock Disciplined, and Avantis Large. The fund primarily invests in common stocks of domestic small, medium- and large-sized companies believed to have growth... More

Nicholas Fund Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Nicholas Fund's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Nicholas Fund Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Nicholas Fund Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Nicholas Fund's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Nicholas Fund's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Nicholas Fund historical prices to predict the future Nicholas Fund's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nicholas Fund's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
99.93100.63101.33
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Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
99.45100.15100.85
Details

Nicholas Fund Backtested Returns

At this stage we consider Nicholas Mutual Fund to be very steady. Nicholas Fund has Sharpe Ratio of 0.13, which conveys that the entity had a 0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Nicholas Fund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please verify Nicholas Fund's Downside Deviation of 0.6968, mean deviation of 0.5269, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0934 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0928%. The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.74, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Nicholas Fund's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Nicholas Fund is expected to be smaller as well.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.53  

Good reverse predictability

Nicholas Fund Inc has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Nicholas Fund time series from 16th of November 2024 to 1st of December 2024 and 1st of December 2024 to 16th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Nicholas Fund price movement. The serial correlation of -0.53 indicates that about 53.0% of current Nicholas Fund price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.53
Spearman Rank Test-0.42
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.32

Nicholas Fund lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Nicholas Fund mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Nicholas Fund's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Nicholas Fund returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Nicholas Fund has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Nicholas Fund regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Nicholas Fund mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Nicholas Fund mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Nicholas Fund mutual fund over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Nicholas Fund Lagged Returns

When evaluating Nicholas Fund's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Nicholas Fund mutual fund have on its future price. Nicholas Fund autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Nicholas Fund autocorrelation shows the relationship between Nicholas Fund mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Nicholas Fund Inc.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

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Other Information on Investing in Nicholas Mutual Fund

Nicholas Fund financial ratios help investors to determine whether Nicholas Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Nicholas with respect to the benefits of owning Nicholas Fund security.
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