NVR (Germany) Market Value
| NVE Stock | EUR 8,600 100.00 1.15% |
| Symbol | NVR |
NVR 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to NVR's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of NVR.
| 05/13/2023 |
| 12/03/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in NVR on May 13, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding NVR Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in NVR over 570 days. NVR is related to or competes with SENECA FOODS-A, J+J SNACK, TRAVEL +, LG Display, Dairy Farm, and INDOFOOD AGRI. The company operates in two segments, Homebuilding and Mortgage Banking More
NVR Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure NVR's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess NVR Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.43 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.26) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.35 |
NVR Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for NVR's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as NVR's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use NVR historical prices to predict the future NVR's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0378 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0218 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.17) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1889 |
NVR Inc Backtested Returns
At this point, NVR is very steady. NVR Inc has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0557, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0557% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for NVR, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify NVR's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1989, risk adjusted performance of 0.0378, and Mean Deviation of 1.22 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0847%. NVR has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.29, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, NVR's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding NVR is expected to be smaller as well. NVR Inc presently secures a risk of 1.52%. Please verify NVR Inc downside variance, kurtosis, and the relationship between the value at risk and expected short fall , to decide if NVR Inc will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | 0.69 |
Good predictability
NVR Inc has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between NVR time series from 13th of May 2023 to 22nd of February 2024 and 22nd of February 2024 to 3rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of NVR Inc price movement. The serial correlation of 0.69 indicates that around 69.0% of current NVR price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.69 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.65 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 504.6 K |
NVR Inc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is NVR stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting NVR's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of NVR returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that NVR has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
NVR regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If NVR stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if NVR stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in NVR stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
NVR Lagged Returns
When evaluating NVR's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of NVR stock have on its future price. NVR autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, NVR autocorrelation shows the relationship between NVR stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in NVR Inc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in NVR Stock
When determining whether NVR Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze NVR's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact NVR's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding NVR Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out NVR Correlation, NVR Volatility and NVR Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on NVR. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
NVR technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.