Obsidian Energy Stock Market Value
| OBE Stock | CAD 7.66 0.05 0.65% |
| Symbol | Obsidian |
Obsidian Energy Price To Book Ratio
Obsidian Energy 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Obsidian Energy's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Obsidian Energy.
| 06/17/2024 |
| 12/14/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Obsidian Energy on June 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Obsidian Energy or generate 0.0% return on investment in Obsidian Energy over 180 days. Obsidian Energy is related to or competes with Gear Energy, Journey Energy, Yangarra Resources, Pine Cliff. Obsidian Energy Ltd. primarily focuses on the exploration, production, and development of oil and natural gas properties... More
Obsidian Energy Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Obsidian Energy's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Obsidian Energy upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.92 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.98) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.21 |
Obsidian Energy Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Obsidian Energy's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Obsidian Energy's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Obsidian Energy historical prices to predict the future Obsidian Energy's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0046 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0487 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.34) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0253 |
Obsidian Energy Backtested Returns
As of now, Obsidian Stock is somewhat reliable. Obsidian Energy maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 2.0E-4, which implies the firm had a 2.0E-4% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-two technical indicators for Obsidian Energy, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check Obsidian Energy's Variance of 6.52, coefficient of variation of (28,301), and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0046 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 6.0E-4%. The company holds a Beta of -0.75, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Obsidian Energy are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Obsidian Energy is likely to outperform the market. Obsidian Energy right now holds a risk of 2.59%. Please check Obsidian Energy skewness, as well as the relationship between the daily balance of power and day typical price , to decide if Obsidian Energy will be following its historical price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.20 |
Weak predictability
Obsidian Energy has weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Obsidian Energy time series from 17th of June 2024 to 15th of September 2024 and 15th of September 2024 to 14th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Obsidian Energy price movement. The serial correlation of 0.2 indicates that over 20.0% of current Obsidian Energy price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.2 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.13 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.08 |
Obsidian Energy lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Obsidian Energy stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Obsidian Energy's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Obsidian Energy returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Obsidian Energy has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Obsidian Energy regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Obsidian Energy stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Obsidian Energy stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Obsidian Energy stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Obsidian Energy Lagged Returns
When evaluating Obsidian Energy's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Obsidian Energy stock have on its future price. Obsidian Energy autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Obsidian Energy autocorrelation shows the relationship between Obsidian Energy stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Obsidian Energy.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Obsidian Energy
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Obsidian Energy position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Obsidian Energy will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Obsidian Energy could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Obsidian Energy when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Obsidian Energy - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Obsidian Energy to buy it.
The correlation of Obsidian Energy is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Obsidian Energy moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Obsidian Energy moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Obsidian Energy can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Obsidian Energy Correlation, Obsidian Energy Volatility and Obsidian Energy Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Obsidian Energy. To learn how to invest in Obsidian Stock, please use our How to Invest in Obsidian Energy guide.You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Obsidian Energy technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.