PACCAR (Germany) Market Value
| PAE Stock | EUR 100.20 0.20 0.20% |
| Symbol | PACCAR |
PACCAR 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to PACCAR's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of PACCAR.
| 07/01/2024 |
| 12/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in PACCAR on July 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding PACCAR Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in PACCAR over 180 days. PACCAR is related to or competes with Sinotruk, and Hyster Yale. PACCAR Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, ... More
PACCAR Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure PACCAR's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess PACCAR Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.106 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.23 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.59) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.69 |
PACCAR Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for PACCAR's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as PACCAR's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use PACCAR historical prices to predict the future PACCAR's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1031 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2305 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1839 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1324 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4869 |
PACCAR Inc Backtested Returns
PACCAR appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. PACCAR Inc retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.14, which implies the company had a 0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for PACCAR, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please evaluate PACCAR's semi deviation of 1.47, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.4969 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, PACCAR holds a performance score of 11. The firm owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.5, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, PACCAR's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding PACCAR is expected to be smaller as well. Please check PACCAR's coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the downside deviation and standard deviation , to make a quick decision on whether PACCAR's current price history will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.67 |
Very good reverse predictability
PACCAR Inc has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between PACCAR time series from 1st of July 2024 to 29th of September 2024 and 29th of September 2024 to 28th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of PACCAR Inc price movement. The serial correlation of -0.67 indicates that around 67.0% of current PACCAR price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.67 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.36 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 44.79 |
PACCAR Inc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is PACCAR stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting PACCAR's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of PACCAR returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that PACCAR has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
PACCAR regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If PACCAR stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if PACCAR stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in PACCAR stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
PACCAR Lagged Returns
When evaluating PACCAR's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of PACCAR stock have on its future price. PACCAR autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, PACCAR autocorrelation shows the relationship between PACCAR stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in PACCAR Inc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in PACCAR Stock
When determining whether PACCAR Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze PACCAR's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact PACCAR's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding PACCAR Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out PACCAR Correlation, PACCAR Volatility and PACCAR Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on PACCAR. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
PACCAR technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.