Paychex (Germany) Market Value
| PCX Stock | EUR 134.02 0.22 0.16% |
| Symbol | Paychex |
Paychex 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Paychex's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Paychex.
| 11/16/2024 |
| 12/16/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Paychex on November 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Paychex or generate 0.0% return on investment in Paychex over 30 days. Paychex is related to or competes with PKSHA TECHNOLOGY, KIMBALL ELECTRONICS, METHODE ELECTRONICS, Electronic Arts, Casio Computer, SMA Solar, and Methode Electronics. Paychex, Inc. provides integrated human capital management solutions for payroll, benefits, human resource , retirement,... More
Paychex Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Paychex's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Paychex upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.8801 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0545 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.25 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.53) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.4 |
Paychex Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Paychex's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Paychex's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Paychex historical prices to predict the future Paychex's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0981 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1098 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0831 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2752 |
Paychex Backtested Returns
At this point, Paychex is very steady. Paychex maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.13, which implies the firm had a 0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Paychex, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check Paychex's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0981, semi deviation of 0.7044, and Coefficient Of Variation of 775.09 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.17%. Paychex has a performance score of 9 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company holds a Beta of 0.59, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Paychex's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Paychex is expected to be smaller as well. Paychex right now holds a risk of 1.34%. Please check Paychex expected short fall, daily balance of power, and the relationship between the downside variance and kurtosis , to decide if Paychex will be following its historical price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.7 |
Very good reverse predictability
Paychex has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Paychex time series from 16th of November 2024 to 1st of December 2024 and 1st of December 2024 to 16th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Paychex price movement. The serial correlation of -0.7 indicates that around 70.0% of current Paychex price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.7 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.55 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.93 |
Paychex lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Paychex stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Paychex's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Paychex returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Paychex has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Paychex regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Paychex stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Paychex stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Paychex stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Paychex Lagged Returns
When evaluating Paychex's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Paychex stock have on its future price. Paychex autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Paychex autocorrelation shows the relationship between Paychex stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Paychex.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Paychex Stock
When determining whether Paychex offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Paychex's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Paychex Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Paychex Stock:Check out Paychex Correlation, Paychex Volatility and Paychex Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Paychex. For more detail on how to invest in Paychex Stock please use our How to Invest in Paychex guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Paychex technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.