Progressive (Germany) Market Value
| PGV Stock | EUR 256.25 1.30 0.50% |
| Symbol | Progressive |
Progressive 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Progressive's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Progressive.
| 12/07/2023 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Progressive on December 7, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding The Progressive or generate 0.0% return on investment in Progressive over 360 days. Progressive is related to or competes with Public Storage, Automatic Data, Highlight Communications, Cass Information, INFORMATION SVC, TERADATA, and WillScot Mobile. The Progressive Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial auto insurance, residential prop... More
Progressive Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Progressive's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess The Progressive upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0461 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.38 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.08) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.64 |
Progressive Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Progressive's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Progressive's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Progressive historical prices to predict the future Progressive's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1135 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.159 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0499 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.7149 |
Progressive Backtested Returns
At this point, Progressive is very steady. Progressive maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.13, which implies the firm had a 0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Progressive, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check Progressive's Coefficient Of Variation of 702.5, market risk adjusted performance of 0.7249, and Semi Deviation of 1.14 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.19%. Progressive has a performance score of 10 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company holds a Beta of 0.27, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Progressive's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Progressive is expected to be smaller as well. Progressive right now holds a risk of 1.43%. Please check Progressive sortino ratio, potential upside, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and maximum drawdown , to decide if Progressive will be following its historical price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.88 |
Very good predictability
The Progressive has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Progressive time series from 7th of December 2023 to 4th of June 2024 and 4th of June 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Progressive price movement. The serial correlation of 0.88 indicates that approximately 88.0% of current Progressive price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.88 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.85 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 309.1 |
Progressive lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Progressive stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Progressive's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Progressive returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Progressive has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Progressive regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Progressive stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Progressive stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Progressive stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Progressive Lagged Returns
When evaluating Progressive's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Progressive stock have on its future price. Progressive autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Progressive autocorrelation shows the relationship between Progressive stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in The Progressive.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Progressive Stock
Progressive financial ratios help investors to determine whether Progressive Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Progressive with respect to the benefits of owning Progressive security.