Polski Koncern (Germany) Market Value

PKY1 Stock  EUR 11.13  0.01  0.09%   
Polski Koncern's market value is the price at which a share of Polski Koncern trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Polski Koncern Naftowy investors about its performance. Polski Koncern is trading at 11.13 as of the 23rd of December 2024. This is a 0.09% down since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 10.89.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Polski Koncern Naftowy and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Polski Koncern over a given investment horizon. Check out Polski Koncern Correlation, Polski Koncern Volatility and Polski Koncern Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Polski Koncern.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between Polski Koncern's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Polski Koncern is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Polski Koncern's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Polski Koncern 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Polski Koncern's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Polski Koncern.
0.00
01/03/2023
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 1 year 11 months and 22 days
12/23/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Polski Koncern on January 3, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Polski Koncern Naftowy or generate 0.0% return on investment in Polski Koncern over 720 days. Polski Koncern is related to or competes with Reliance Industries, Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, NESTE OYJ, ENEOS Holdings, and PTT OIL+RETBUS-FOR-B. Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Splka Akcyjna processes, refines, and markets crude oil More

Polski Koncern Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Polski Koncern's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Polski Koncern Naftowy upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Polski Koncern Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Polski Koncern's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Polski Koncern's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Polski Koncern historical prices to predict the future Polski Koncern's volatility.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.0211.1313.24
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.5911.7013.81
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
8.5110.6212.73
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
10.8311.8112.79
Details

Polski Koncern Naftowy Backtested Returns

Polski Koncern Naftowy maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.14, which implies the firm had a -0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Polski Koncern Naftowy exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check Polski Koncern's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.08), coefficient of variation of (889.77), and Variance of 4.68 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The company holds a Beta of 0.56, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Polski Koncern's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Polski Koncern is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Polski Koncern Naftowy has a negative expected return of -0.29%. Please make sure to check Polski Koncern's value at risk, skewness, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to decide if Polski Koncern Naftowy performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.50  

Modest predictability

Polski Koncern Naftowy has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Polski Koncern time series from 3rd of January 2023 to 29th of December 2023 and 29th of December 2023 to 23rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Polski Koncern Naftowy price movement. The serial correlation of 0.5 indicates that about 50.0% of current Polski Koncern price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.5
Spearman Rank Test0.45
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.81

Polski Koncern Naftowy lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Polski Koncern stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Polski Koncern's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Polski Koncern returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Polski Koncern has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Polski Koncern regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Polski Koncern stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Polski Koncern stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Polski Koncern stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Polski Koncern Lagged Returns

When evaluating Polski Koncern's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Polski Koncern stock have on its future price. Polski Koncern autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Polski Koncern autocorrelation shows the relationship between Polski Koncern stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Polski Koncern Naftowy.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

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Other Information on Investing in Polski Stock

Polski Koncern financial ratios help investors to determine whether Polski Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Polski with respect to the benefits of owning Polski Koncern security.