TFS FINANCIAL (Germany) Market Value
| PWT Stock | EUR 13.30 0.10 0.75% |
| Symbol | TFS |
TFS FINANCIAL 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to TFS FINANCIAL's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of TFS FINANCIAL.
| 06/05/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in TFS FINANCIAL on June 5, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding TFS FINANCIAL or generate 0.0% return on investment in TFS FINANCIAL over 180 days. TFS FINANCIAL is related to or competes with Gladstone Investment, Infrastrutture Wireless, WillScot Mobile, HK Electric, ORMAT TECHNOLOGIES, and Strategic Investments. More
TFS FINANCIAL Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure TFS FINANCIAL's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess TFS FINANCIAL upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0316 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.15 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.50) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.01 |
TFS FINANCIAL Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for TFS FINANCIAL's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as TFS FINANCIAL's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use TFS FINANCIAL historical prices to predict the future TFS FINANCIAL's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0858 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.13) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0337 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1119 |
TFS FINANCIAL Backtested Returns
At this point, TFS FINANCIAL is not too volatile. TFS FINANCIAL owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0985, which indicates the firm had a 0.0985% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for TFS FINANCIAL, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate TFS FINANCIAL's risk adjusted performance of 0.0858, and Coefficient Of Variation of 957.58 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.19%. TFS FINANCIAL has a performance score of 7 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of 1.68, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, TFS FINANCIAL will likely underperform. TFS FINANCIAL currently has a risk of 1.9%. Please validate TFS FINANCIAL downside variance, kurtosis, and the relationship between the value at risk and expected short fall , to decide if TFS FINANCIAL will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.23 |
Weak predictability
TFS FINANCIAL has weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between TFS FINANCIAL time series from 5th of June 2024 to 3rd of September 2024 and 3rd of September 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of TFS FINANCIAL price movement. The serial correlation of 0.23 indicates that over 23.0% of current TFS FINANCIAL price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.23 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.33 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.61 |
TFS FINANCIAL lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is TFS FINANCIAL stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting TFS FINANCIAL's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of TFS FINANCIAL returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that TFS FINANCIAL has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
TFS FINANCIAL regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If TFS FINANCIAL stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if TFS FINANCIAL stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in TFS FINANCIAL stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
TFS FINANCIAL Lagged Returns
When evaluating TFS FINANCIAL's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of TFS FINANCIAL stock have on its future price. TFS FINANCIAL autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, TFS FINANCIAL autocorrelation shows the relationship between TFS FINANCIAL stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in TFS FINANCIAL.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in TFS Stock
When determining whether TFS FINANCIAL is a strong investment it is important to analyze TFS FINANCIAL's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact TFS FINANCIAL's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding TFS Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out TFS FINANCIAL Correlation, TFS FINANCIAL Volatility and TFS FINANCIAL Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on TFS FINANCIAL. For information on how to trade TFS Stock refer to our How to Trade TFS Stock guide.You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
TFS FINANCIAL technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.