PT Saraswanti (Indonesia) Market Value
| SWID Stock | 68.00 1.00 1.45% |
| Symbol | SWID |
PT Saraswanti 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to PT Saraswanti's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of PT Saraswanti.
| 10/25/2024 |
| 12/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in PT Saraswanti on October 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding PT Saraswanti Indoland or generate 0.0% return on investment in PT Saraswanti over 60 days. PT Saraswanti is related to or competes with Jaya Sukses, Hanson International, Pollux Investasi, Adhi Commuter, Modernland Realty, Suryamas Dutamakmur, and Natura City. More
PT Saraswanti Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure PT Saraswanti's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess PT Saraswanti Indoland upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.27 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.78) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.9 |
PT Saraswanti Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for PT Saraswanti's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as PT Saraswanti's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use PT Saraswanti historical prices to predict the future PT Saraswanti's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.13) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.20) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.7569 |
PT Saraswanti Indoland Backtested Returns
PT Saraswanti Indoland retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0797, which implies the firm had a -0.0797% return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. PT Saraswanti exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check PT Saraswanti's market risk adjusted performance of 0.7669, and Information Ratio of (0.07) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The company owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of -0.18, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning PT Saraswanti are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, PT Saraswanti is likely to outperform the market. At this point, PT Saraswanti Indoland has a negative expected return of -0.17%. Please make sure to check PT Saraswanti's coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the mean deviation and standard deviation , to decide if PT Saraswanti Indoland performance from the past will be repeated at some future date.
Auto-correlation | 0.66 |
Good predictability
PT Saraswanti Indoland has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between PT Saraswanti time series from 25th of October 2024 to 24th of November 2024 and 24th of November 2024 to 24th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of PT Saraswanti Indoland price movement. The serial correlation of 0.66 indicates that around 66.0% of current PT Saraswanti price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.66 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.63 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 4.86 |
PT Saraswanti Indoland lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is PT Saraswanti stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting PT Saraswanti's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of PT Saraswanti returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that PT Saraswanti has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
PT Saraswanti regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If PT Saraswanti stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if PT Saraswanti stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in PT Saraswanti stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
PT Saraswanti Lagged Returns
When evaluating PT Saraswanti's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of PT Saraswanti stock have on its future price. PT Saraswanti autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, PT Saraswanti autocorrelation shows the relationship between PT Saraswanti stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in PT Saraswanti Indoland.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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PT Saraswanti financial ratios help investors to determine whether SWID Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in SWID with respect to the benefits of owning PT Saraswanti security.