Timah Persero (Indonesia) Market Value
| TINS Stock | IDR 1,120 45.00 3.86% |
| Symbol | Timah |
Timah Persero 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Timah Persero's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Timah Persero.
| 06/08/2023 |
| 11/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Timah Persero on June 8, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Timah Persero Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Timah Persero over 540 days. Timah Persero is related to or competes with Vale Indonesia, Aneka Tambang, Bukit Asam, Perusahaan Gas, and Medco Energi. More
Timah Persero Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Timah Persero's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Timah Persero Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.03 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.012 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.31 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.12) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.61 |
Timah Persero Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Timah Persero's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Timah Persero's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Timah Persero historical prices to predict the future Timah Persero's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.046 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.157 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.34) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0131 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (9.29) |
Timah Persero Tbk Backtested Returns
Timah Persero appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Timah Persero Tbk owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.07, which indicates the firm had a 0.07% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Timah Persero Tbk, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review Timah Persero's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.046, semi deviation of 2.81, and Coefficient Of Variation of 1998.65 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Timah Persero holds a performance score of 5. The entity has a beta of -0.0167, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Timah Persero are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Timah Persero is likely to outperform the market. Please check Timah Persero's jensen alpha, sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Timah Persero's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.76 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Timah Persero Tbk has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Timah Persero time series from 8th of June 2023 to 4th of March 2024 and 4th of March 2024 to 29th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Timah Persero Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.76 indicates that around 76.0% of current Timah Persero price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.76 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.83 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 36.8 K |
Timah Persero Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Timah Persero stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Timah Persero's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Timah Persero returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Timah Persero has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Timah Persero regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Timah Persero stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Timah Persero stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Timah Persero stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Timah Persero Lagged Returns
When evaluating Timah Persero's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Timah Persero stock have on its future price. Timah Persero autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Timah Persero autocorrelation shows the relationship between Timah Persero stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Timah Persero Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Timah Persero financial ratios help investors to determine whether Timah Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Timah with respect to the benefits of owning Timah Persero security.