Tillys Inc Stock Market Value
| TLYS Stock | USD 4.21 0.03 0.72% |
| Symbol | Tillys |
Tillys Inc Price To Book Ratio
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Tillys. If investors know Tillys will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Tillys listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.97) | Earnings Share (1.39) | Revenue Per Share 20.65 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.018 | Return On Assets (0.03) |
The market value of Tillys Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Tillys that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Tillys' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Tillys' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Tillys' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Tillys' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Tillys' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Tillys is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tillys' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Tillys 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Tillys' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Tillys.
| 10/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Tillys on October 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Tillys Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Tillys over 30 days. Tillys is related to or competes with Genesco, Shoe Carnival, JJill, Citi Trends, Lands End, Zumiez, and Cato. Tillys, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and ... More
Tillys Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Tillys' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Tillys Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.11) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.25 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.98) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.45 |
Tillys Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Tillys' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Tillys' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Tillys historical prices to predict the future Tillys' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.56) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.89) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.14) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tillys' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Tillys Inc Backtested Returns
Tillys Inc owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0765, which indicates the firm had a -0.0765% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Tillys Inc exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Tillys' Variance of 15.26, risk adjusted performance of (0.05), and Coefficient Of Variation of (1,318) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 2.22, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Tillys will likely underperform. At this point, Tillys Inc has a negative expected return of -0.3%. Please make sure to validate Tillys' total risk alpha, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the Kurtosis and market facilitation index , to decide if Tillys Inc performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.24 |
Weak reverse predictability
Tillys Inc has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Tillys time series from 29th of October 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Tillys Inc price movement. The serial correlation of -0.24 indicates that over 24.0% of current Tillys price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.24 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.08 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.04 |
Tillys Inc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Tillys stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Tillys' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Tillys returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Tillys has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Tillys regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Tillys stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Tillys stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Tillys stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Tillys Lagged Returns
When evaluating Tillys' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Tillys stock have on its future price. Tillys autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Tillys autocorrelation shows the relationship between Tillys stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Tillys Inc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Tillys Stock Analysis
When running Tillys' price analysis, check to measure Tillys' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tillys is operating at the current time. Most of Tillys' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tillys' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tillys' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tillys to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.