Ulta Beauty (Brazil) Market Value
| U1LT34 Stock | BRL 128.10 1.70 1.31% |
| Symbol | Ulta |
Ulta Beauty 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ulta Beauty's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ulta Beauty.
| 11/17/2024 |
| 12/17/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ulta Beauty on November 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ulta Beauty or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ulta Beauty over 30 days. Ulta Beauty is related to or competes with Unity Software, Mitsubishi UFJ, Trade Desk, Sumitomo Mitsui, Bread Financial, and Dell Technologies. Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a retailer of beauty products in the United States More
Ulta Beauty Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ulta Beauty's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ulta Beauty upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1123 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.57 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.73) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.23 |
Ulta Beauty Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ulta Beauty's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ulta Beauty's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ulta Beauty historical prices to predict the future Ulta Beauty's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1078 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3473 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1411 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1319 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (6.86) |
Ulta Beauty Backtested Returns
Ulta Beauty appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Ulta Beauty owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.11, which indicates the firm had a 0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Ulta Beauty, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review Ulta Beauty's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1078, coefficient of variation of 720.36, and Semi Deviation of 1.81 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Ulta Beauty holds a performance score of 8. The entity has a beta of -0.0502, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Ulta Beauty are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Ulta Beauty is likely to outperform the market. Please check Ulta Beauty's treynor ratio, value at risk, downside variance, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to make a quick decision on whether Ulta Beauty's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.74 |
Good predictability
Ulta Beauty has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ulta Beauty time series from 17th of November 2024 to 2nd of December 2024 and 2nd of December 2024 to 17th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ulta Beauty price movement. The serial correlation of 0.74 indicates that around 74.0% of current Ulta Beauty price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.74 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.58 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 22.73 |
Ulta Beauty lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ulta Beauty stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ulta Beauty's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ulta Beauty returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ulta Beauty has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ulta Beauty regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ulta Beauty stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ulta Beauty stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ulta Beauty stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ulta Beauty Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ulta Beauty's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ulta Beauty stock have on its future price. Ulta Beauty autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ulta Beauty autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ulta Beauty stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ulta Beauty.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Ulta Stock
When determining whether Ulta Beauty offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ulta Beauty's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ulta Beauty Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ulta Beauty Stock:Check out Ulta Beauty Correlation, Ulta Beauty Volatility and Ulta Beauty Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Ulta Beauty. For information on how to trade Ulta Stock refer to our How to Trade Ulta Stock guide.You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Ulta Beauty technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.