Valero Energy (Germany) Market Value
| V1L Stock | EUR 114.00 2.44 2.10% |
| Symbol | Valero |
Valero Energy 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Valero Energy's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Valero Energy.
| 06/26/2024 |
| 12/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Valero Energy on June 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Valero Energy or generate 0.0% return on investment in Valero Energy over 180 days. Valero Energy is related to or competes with Reliance Industries, Marathon Petroleum, NESTE OYJ, Polski Koncern, ENEOS Holdings, and PTT OIL+RETBUS-FOR-B. Valero Energy Corporation operates as an independent petroleum refining and ethanol producing company in the United Stat... More
Valero Energy Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Valero Energy's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Valero Energy upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.28 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.28) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.72 |
Valero Energy Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Valero Energy's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Valero Energy's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Valero Energy historical prices to predict the future Valero Energy's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.10) |
Valero Energy Backtested Returns
Valero Energy owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0332, which indicates the firm had a -0.0332% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Valero Energy exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Valero Energy's Variance of 4.21, risk adjusted performance of (0.01), and Coefficient Of Variation of (4,668) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.53, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Valero Energy's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Valero Energy is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Valero Energy has a negative expected return of -0.0684%. Please make sure to validate Valero Energy's treynor ratio, skewness, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and potential upside , to decide if Valero Energy performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.25 |
Weak reverse predictability
Valero Energy has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Valero Energy time series from 26th of June 2024 to 24th of September 2024 and 24th of September 2024 to 23rd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Valero Energy price movement. The serial correlation of -0.25 indicates that over 25.0% of current Valero Energy price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.25 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.15 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 30.27 |
Valero Energy lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Valero Energy stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Valero Energy's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Valero Energy returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Valero Energy has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Valero Energy regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Valero Energy stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Valero Energy stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Valero Energy stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Valero Energy Lagged Returns
When evaluating Valero Energy's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Valero Energy stock have on its future price. Valero Energy autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Valero Energy autocorrelation shows the relationship between Valero Energy stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Valero Energy.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Valero Stock
When determining whether Valero Energy offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Valero Energy's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Valero Energy Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Valero Energy Stock:Check out Valero Energy Correlation, Valero Energy Volatility and Valero Energy Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Valero Energy. For more detail on how to invest in Valero Stock please use our How to Invest in Valero Energy guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Valero Energy technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.