Caterpillar Stock Price Prediction
| CAT Stock | USD 406.11 2.41 0.60% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
50
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 5.09 | EPS Estimate Current Year 21.8587 | EPS Estimate Next Year 22.0717 | Wall Street Target Price 379.04 |
Using Caterpillar hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Caterpillar from the perspective of Caterpillar response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Caterpillar using Caterpillar's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Caterpillar using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Caterpillar's stock price.
Caterpillar Short Interest
An investor who is long Caterpillar may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Caterpillar and may potentially protect profits, hedge Caterpillar with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 354.5299 | Short Percent 0.0202 | Short Ratio 4.25 | Shares Short Prior Month 11.8 M | 50 Day MA 390.0014 |
Caterpillar Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Caterpillar's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Caterpillar. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Caterpillar can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Caterpillar. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Caterpillar's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Caterpillar.
Caterpillar Implied Volatility | 0.48 |
Caterpillar's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Caterpillar stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Caterpillar's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Caterpillar stock will not fluctuate a lot when Caterpillar's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Caterpillar to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Caterpillar because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Caterpillar after-hype prediction price | USD 408.25 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Caterpillar contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Caterpillar will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.03% per day over the life of the 2024-12-06 option contract. With Caterpillar trading at USD 406.11, that is roughly USD 0.12 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Caterpillar's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Caterpillar options at the current volatility level of 0.48%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Caterpillar |
Caterpillar After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Caterpillar at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Caterpillar or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Caterpillar, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Caterpillar Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Caterpillar's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Caterpillar's historical news coverage. Caterpillar's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 365.50 and 410.13, respectively. We have considered Caterpillar's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Caterpillar is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Caterpillar is based on 3 months time horizon.
Caterpillar Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Caterpillar is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Caterpillar backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Caterpillar, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 1.88 | 2.14 | 0.92 | 6 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
406.11 | 408.25 | 0.53 |
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Caterpillar Hype Timeline
On the 30th of November Caterpillar is traded for 406.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 2.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.92. Caterpillar is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 408.25 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 26.37%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.53%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.3%. The volatility of related hype on Caterpillar is about 61.6%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 407.03. The company reported the last year's revenue of 67.06 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 10.34 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 15.56 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Caterpillar Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Caterpillar Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Caterpillar's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Caterpillar's future price movements. Getting to know how Caterpillar's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Caterpillar may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AGCO | AGCO Corporation | 0.05 | 11 per month | 1.93 | 0.03 | 2.65 | (2.75) | 10.25 | |
| NKLA | Nikola Corp | (0.18) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 6.76 | (12.50) | 42.89 | |
| PCAR | PACCAR Inc | (0.69) | 9 per month | 1.14 | 0.12 | 3.32 | (2.43) | 10.18 | |
| DE | Deere Company | 24.79 | 7 per month | 0.98 | 0.12 | 2.16 | (1.86) | 8.40 | |
| LNN | Lindsay | 3.94 | 9 per month | 1.62 | (0.0001) | 2.52 | (2.37) | 13.76 | |
| ALG | Alamo Group | (0.41) | 8 per month | 1.48 | 0.02 | 2.41 | (2.40) | 12.98 | |
| LEV | Lion Electric Corp | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 12.50 | (14.71) | 41.71 | |
| OSK | Oshkosh | 2.51 | 11 per month | 1.86 | (0) | 2.78 | (2.83) | 12.69 | |
| TEX | Terex | (0.14) | 9 per month | 2.66 | (0.04) | 4.13 | (3.93) | 16.23 | |
| MTW | Manitowoc | 0.66 | 9 per month | 2.74 | 0 | 5.49 | (4.10) | 19.29 |
Caterpillar Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Caterpillar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Caterpillar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Caterpillar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Caterpillar Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Caterpillar stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Caterpillar, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Caterpillar based on analysis of Caterpillar hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Caterpillar's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Caterpillar's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0207 | 0.0193 | 0.017 | 0.0178 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.21 | 2.12 | 2.25 | 2.36 |
Story Coverage note for Caterpillar
The number of cover stories for Caterpillar depends on current market conditions and Caterpillar's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Caterpillar is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Caterpillar's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Caterpillar Short Properties
Caterpillar's future price predictability will typically decrease when Caterpillar's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Caterpillar often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Caterpillar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Caterpillar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 513.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7 B |
Additional Tools for Caterpillar Stock Analysis
When running Caterpillar's price analysis, check to measure Caterpillar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Caterpillar is operating at the current time. Most of Caterpillar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Caterpillar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Caterpillar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Caterpillar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.