Cheetah Mobile Stock Price Prediction
| CMCM Stock | USD 5.78 0.61 11.80% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
46
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.99) | Wall Street Target Price 1.35 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.123 |
Using Cheetah Mobile hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cheetah Mobile from the perspective of Cheetah Mobile response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Cheetah Mobile to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Cheetah because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Cheetah Mobile after-hype prediction price | USD 5.88 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Cheetah |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cheetah Mobile's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cheetah Mobile After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cheetah Mobile at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cheetah Mobile or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cheetah Mobile, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cheetah Mobile Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cheetah Mobile's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cheetah Mobile's historical news coverage. Cheetah Mobile's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.28 and 11.48, respectively. We have considered Cheetah Mobile's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cheetah Mobile is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cheetah Mobile is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cheetah Mobile Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cheetah Mobile is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cheetah Mobile backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cheetah Mobile, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.89 | 5.60 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 3 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.78 | 5.88 | 1.73 |
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Cheetah Mobile Hype Timeline
Cheetah Mobile is currently traded for 5.78. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Cheetah is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 5.88 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 1.73%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.89%. The volatility of related hype on Cheetah Mobile is about 9032.26%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.72. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 669.5 M. Net Loss for the year was (593.87 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 631.5 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Cheetah Mobile Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Cheetah Mobile Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cheetah Mobile's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cheetah Mobile's future price movements. Getting to know how Cheetah Mobile's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cheetah Mobile may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TOUR | Tuniu Corp | 0.05 | 12 per month | 3.10 | 0.09 | 9.26 | (5.98) | 51.45 | |
| LEJU | Leju Holdings Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 9.90 | 0.11 | 31.16 | (20.64) | 136.21 | |
| YRD | Yirendai | (0.53) | 5 per month | 5.24 | 0.04 | 10.82 | (6.80) | 46.34 | |
| XNET | Xunlei Ltd Adr | 0.04 | 6 per month | 3.68 | 0.07 | 6.28 | (6.12) | 30.75 | |
| FENG | Phoenix New Media | 0.13 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 6.90 | (8.27) | 22.19 |
Cheetah Mobile Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cheetah price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cheetah using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cheetah charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
About Cheetah Mobile Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Cheetah Mobile stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Cheetah Mobile, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Cheetah Mobile based on analysis of Cheetah Mobile hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Cheetah Mobile's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Cheetah Mobile's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.79 | 0.83 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.71 | 0.68 |
Story Coverage note for Cheetah Mobile
The number of cover stories for Cheetah Mobile depends on current market conditions and Cheetah Mobile's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cheetah Mobile is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cheetah Mobile's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cheetah Mobile Short Properties
Cheetah Mobile's future price predictability will typically decrease when Cheetah Mobile's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cheetah Mobile often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cheetah Mobile's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cheetah Mobile's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 29.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
Check out Cheetah Mobile Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Cheetah Stock, please use our How to Invest in Cheetah Mobile guide.You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cheetah Mobile. If investors know Cheetah will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cheetah Mobile listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.99) | Earnings Share (2.46) | Revenue Per Share 23.754 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.123 | Return On Assets (0.03) |
The market value of Cheetah Mobile is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cheetah that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cheetah Mobile's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cheetah Mobile's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cheetah Mobile's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cheetah Mobile's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cheetah Mobile's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cheetah Mobile is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cheetah Mobile's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.