Mercadolibre Stock Price Prediction
| MELI Stock | USD 1,985 59.59 2.91% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
40
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.094 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 10.52 | EPS Estimate Current Year 33.8753 | EPS Estimate Next Year 46.6963 | Wall Street Target Price 2.3 K |
Using MercadoLibre hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MercadoLibre from the perspective of MercadoLibre response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
MercadoLibre Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to MercadoLibre's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in MercadoLibre. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding MercadoLibre can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around MercadoLibre. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of MercadoLibre's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about MercadoLibre.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in MercadoLibre to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying MercadoLibre because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
MercadoLibre after-hype prediction price | USD 1986.15 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
MercadoLibre |
MercadoLibre After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MercadoLibre at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MercadoLibre or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MercadoLibre, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MercadoLibre Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MercadoLibre's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MercadoLibre's historical news coverage. MercadoLibre's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,983 and 1,989, respectively. We have considered MercadoLibre's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MercadoLibre is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MercadoLibre is based on 3 months time horizon.
MercadoLibre Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MercadoLibre is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MercadoLibre backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MercadoLibre, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 2.82 | 0.98 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
1,985 | 1,986 | 0.05 |
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MercadoLibre Hype Timeline
MercadoLibre is now traded for 1,985. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.98, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. MercadoLibre is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1986.15 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 11.53%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.04%. The volatility of related hype on MercadoLibre is about 1375.61%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,985. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 14.47 B. Net Income was 987 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 5.95 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out MercadoLibre Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.MercadoLibre Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MercadoLibre's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MercadoLibre's future price movements. Getting to know how MercadoLibre's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MercadoLibre may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PDD | PDD Holdings | (2.03) | 9 per month | 3.18 | 0.01 | 4.85 | (5.75) | 24.21 | |
| JD | JD Inc Adr | (0.30) | 9 per month | 2.94 | 0.12 | 6.76 | (6.99) | 23.41 | |
| BABA | Alibaba Group Holding | (1.40) | 8 per month | 2.39 | 0.01 | 4.82 | (3.81) | 16.74 | |
| GLBE | Global E Online | (0.14) | 6 per month | 1.21 | 0.23 | 4.70 | (2.91) | 12.67 | |
| SE | Sea | 0.46 | 6 per month | 1.44 | 0.17 | 4.65 | (2.83) | 13.28 | |
| JMIA | Jumia Technologies AG | (0.06) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.14 | (4.97) | 28.82 | |
| FTCH | Farfetch Ltd Class | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.55 | 0.05 | 7.30 | (5.87) | 24.63 | |
| W | Wayfair | 1.59 | 12 per month | 3.61 | 0.02 | 5.74 | (6.15) | 16.38 | |
| CHWY | Chewy Inc | (0.05) | 13 per month | 1.95 | 0.05 | 6.03 | (3.65) | 12.83 | |
| VIPS | Vipshop Holdings Limited | (0.12) | 8 per month | 2.21 | 0.03 | 4.34 | (4.47) | 17.40 |
MercadoLibre Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MercadoLibre price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MercadoLibre using various technical indicators. When you analyze MercadoLibre charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About MercadoLibre Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of MercadoLibre stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as MercadoLibre, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of MercadoLibre based on analysis of MercadoLibre hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to MercadoLibre's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to MercadoLibre's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 4.6E-5 | 4.4E-5 | Price To Sales Ratio | 5.46 | 5.18 |
Story Coverage note for MercadoLibre
The number of cover stories for MercadoLibre depends on current market conditions and MercadoLibre's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MercadoLibre is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MercadoLibre's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
MercadoLibre Short Properties
MercadoLibre's future price predictability will typically decrease when MercadoLibre's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MercadoLibre often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MercadoLibre's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MercadoLibre's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 51 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.3 B |
Complementary Tools for MercadoLibre Stock analysis
When running MercadoLibre's price analysis, check to measure MercadoLibre's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MercadoLibre is operating at the current time. Most of MercadoLibre's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MercadoLibre's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MercadoLibre's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MercadoLibre to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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