Sunrun Inc Stock Price Prediction
| RUN Stock | USD 11.53 0.02 0.17% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
35
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.173 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.20) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.28) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.89) | Wall Street Target Price 19.0413 |
Using Sunrun hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sunrun Inc from the perspective of Sunrun response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Sunrun using Sunrun's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Sunrun using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Sunrun's stock price.
Sunrun Short Interest
An investor who is long Sunrun may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Sunrun and may potentially protect profits, hedge Sunrun with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 14.3029 | Short Percent 0.2488 | Short Ratio 3.89 | Shares Short Prior Month 45 M | 50 Day MA 14.3692 |
Sunrun Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Sunrun's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Sunrun. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Sunrun can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Sunrun Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Sunrun's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Sunrun.
Sunrun Implied Volatility | 1.77 |
Sunrun's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Sunrun Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Sunrun's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Sunrun stock will not fluctuate a lot when Sunrun's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Sunrun to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Sunrun because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Sunrun after-hype prediction price | USD 11.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Sunrun contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Sunrun Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.11% per day over the life of the 2024-12-06 option contract. With Sunrun trading at USD 11.53, that is roughly USD 0.0128 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Sunrun's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Sunrun Inc options at the current volatility level of 1.77%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sunrun |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sunrun's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Sunrun After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sunrun at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sunrun or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sunrun, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sunrun Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sunrun's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sunrun's historical news coverage. Sunrun's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.23 and 17.39, respectively. We have considered Sunrun's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sunrun is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sunrun Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sunrun Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sunrun is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sunrun backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sunrun, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.58 | 5.58 | 0.28 | 0.22 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.53 | 11.81 | 2.43 |
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Sunrun Hype Timeline
On the 30th of November Sunrun Inc is traded for 11.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.28, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.22. Sunrun is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 11.81 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 2.43%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.58%. The volatility of related hype on Sunrun is about 1488.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.31. Sunrun Inc has 11.09 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.02, which is OK given its current industry classification. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Sunrun Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Sunrun Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sunrun's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sunrun's future price movements. Getting to know how Sunrun's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sunrun may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MAXN | Maxeon Solar Technologies | (1.70) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 15.60 | (17.22) | 59.83 | |
| CSIQ | Canadian Solar | (0.41) | 8 per month | 6.20 | 0.01 | 9.83 | (8.50) | 35.56 | |
| FSLR | First Solar | (2.65) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.38 | (5.97) | 25.32 | |
| NOVA | Sunnova Energy International | (0.21) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 14.31 | (9.06) | 66.13 | |
| SEDG | SolarEdge Technologies | (2.04) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 8.55 | (10.53) | 33.63 | |
| SPWR | SunPower | (0.16) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 10.29 | (40.08) | 75.00 | |
| ENPH | Enphase Energy | 2.80 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 5.25 | (6.72) | 23.14 | |
| JKS | JinkoSolar Holding | 1.37 | 10 per month | 6.11 | 0.07 | 9.45 | (7.53) | 36.24 |
Sunrun Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sunrun price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sunrun using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sunrun charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Sunrun Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Sunrun stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Sunrun Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Sunrun based on analysis of Sunrun hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Sunrun's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Sunrun's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0345 | 0.0307 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.88 | 1.79 |
Story Coverage note for Sunrun
The number of cover stories for Sunrun depends on current market conditions and Sunrun's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sunrun is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sunrun's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Sunrun Short Properties
Sunrun's future price predictability will typically decrease when Sunrun's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sunrun Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sunrun's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sunrun's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 216.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 678.8 M |
Check out Sunrun Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Electrical Components & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sunrun. If investors know Sunrun will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Sunrun listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.173 | Earnings Share (1.75) | Revenue Per Share 9.204 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) | Return On Assets (0.02) |
The market value of Sunrun Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sunrun that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sunrun's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sunrun's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sunrun's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sunrun's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sunrun's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sunrun is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sunrun's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.