Swvl Holdings Corp Stock Price Prediction
| SWVL Stock | USD 6.46 0.55 9.31% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
57
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 125 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.49) |
Using Swvl Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Swvl Holdings Corp from the perspective of Swvl Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Swvl Holdings to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Swvl because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Swvl Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 6.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Swvl |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Swvl Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Swvl Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Swvl Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Swvl Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Swvl Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Swvl Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Swvl Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Swvl Holdings' historical news coverage. Swvl Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.31 and 15.39, respectively. We have considered Swvl Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Swvl Holdings is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Swvl Holdings Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Swvl Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Swvl Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Swvl Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Swvl Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.68 | 9.19 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 6 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.46 | 6.20 | 4.02 |
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Swvl Holdings Hype Timeline
Swvl Holdings Corp is at this time traded for 6.46. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.26, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Swvl is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 6.2. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -4.02%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.68%. The volatility of related hype on Swvl Holdings is about 7179.69%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.55. About 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Swvl Holdings Corp had 1:25 split on the 26th of January 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Swvl Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Swvl Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Swvl Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Swvl Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Swvl Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Swvl Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BEKE | Ke Holdings | (0.17) | 9 per month | 3.69 | 0.09 | 8.40 | (6.10) | 31.65 | |
| NCNO | nCino Inc | 0.81 | 12 per month | 0.87 | 0.22 | 3.15 | (1.98) | 8.91 | |
| KC | Kingsoft Cloud Holdings | 0.19 | 8 per month | 5.76 | 0.19 | 19.49 | (14.06) | 56.37 | |
| FROG | Jfrog | (0.25) | 10 per month | 2.15 | 0.04 | 4.43 | (3.72) | 13.97 | |
| BIGC | Bigcommerce Holdings | 0.06 | 7 per month | 1.81 | 0.09 | 7.47 | (3.31) | 13.63 |
Swvl Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Swvl price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Swvl using various technical indicators. When you analyze Swvl charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Swvl Holdings Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Swvl Holdings stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Swvl Holdings Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Swvl Holdings based on analysis of Swvl Holdings hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Swvl Holdings's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Swvl Holdings's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 9.45 | 1.67 | 2.75 | 2.61 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 58.3 | 7.0E-6 | 0.0246 | 0.0233 |
Story Coverage note for Swvl Holdings
The number of cover stories for Swvl Holdings depends on current market conditions and Swvl Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Swvl Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Swvl Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Swvl Holdings Short Properties
Swvl Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Swvl Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Swvl Holdings Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Swvl Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Swvl Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.9 M |
Check out Swvl Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Swvl Holdings. If investors know Swvl will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Swvl Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 0.37 | Revenue Per Share 3.368 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.49) | Return On Assets (0.13) | Return On Equity 0.9633 |
The market value of Swvl Holdings Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Swvl that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Swvl Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Swvl Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Swvl Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Swvl Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Swvl Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Swvl Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Swvl Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.