Morgan Stanley China Fund Volatility
| CAF Fund | USD 12.49 0.07 0.56% |
At this point, Morgan Stanley is not too volatile. Morgan Stanley China has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0508, which conveys that the entity had a 0.0508% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Morgan Stanley, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please verify Morgan Stanley's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0438, mean deviation of 1.81, and Downside Deviation of 2.72 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.15%. Key indicators related to Morgan Stanley's volatility include:
90 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 90 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Morgan Stanley Fund volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Morgan daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Morgan's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Morgan Stanley volatility.
Morgan |
Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game with Morgan Stanley. They may decide to buy additional shares of Morgan Stanley at lower prices to lower the average cost per share, thereby improving their portfolio's performance when markets normalize.
Moving together with Morgan Fund
Moving against Morgan Fund
Morgan Stanley Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Morgan Stanley's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Morgan fund compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Morgan fund's returns against your selected market. In other words, Morgan Stanley's beta of -0.2 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Morgan Stanley fund can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Morgan Stanley China currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.0 and Jensen Alpha of 0.15. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Morgan Stanley's fund risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Morgan Stanley's fund price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Morgan Stanley China Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Morgan Stanley correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Morgan Beta |
Morgan standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 2.87 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Morgan Stanley's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Morgan Stanley's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in morgan fund tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley China Fund Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Morgan Stanley fund price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Morgan Stanley's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Morgan Stanley's fund to predict their future moves. A fund that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A fund with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile fund is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Morgan Stanley's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of fund volatility measures Morgan Stanley's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Morgan Stanley's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the fund.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Morgan Stanley's current market price. This means that the fund will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Morgan Stanley's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Morgan Stanley China Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Morgan Stanley Projected Return Density Against Market
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Morgan Stanley China has a beta of -0.2043 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Morgan Stanley are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Morgan Stanley China is likely to outperform the market.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Morgan Stanley or Financial Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Morgan Stanley's price will be affected by overall fund market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Morgan fund's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Morgan Stanley China has an alpha of 0.1502, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Morgan Stanley Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a fund's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Morgan Stanley Fund Risk Measures
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the coefficient of variation of Morgan Stanley is 1967.76. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 8.22 and standard deviation of 2.87. The mean deviation of Morgan Stanley China is currently at 1.86. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.76
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0013 |
Morgan Stanley Fund Return Volatility
Morgan Stanley historical daily return volatility represents how much of Morgan Stanley fund's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The mutual fund has volatility of 2.8669% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7502% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Morgan Stanley Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Morgan Stanley or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Morgan Stanley may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Morgan's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Morgan Stanley and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Morgan Stanley fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. is a closed ended equity mutual fund launched and managed by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc. It is co-managed by Morgan Stanley Investment Management Company. The fund invests in the public equity markets of China. It seeks to invest in the stocks of companies operating across diversified sectors. The fund invests in the growth stocks of companies. It employs fundamental analysis with bottom-up stock picking approach to create its portfolio. The fund benchmarks the performance of its portfolio against the Morgan Stanley Capital International China A Share Index. Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. was formed on July 6, 2006 and is domiciled in the United States.
Morgan Stanley's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Morgan Fund over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Morgan Stanley's price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Morgan Stanley's volatility to invest better
Higher Morgan Stanley's fund volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Morgan Stanley China fund is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Morgan Stanley China fund volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Morgan Stanley China investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Morgan Stanley's fund can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Morgan Stanley's fund relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Morgan Stanley Investment Opportunity
Morgan Stanley China has a volatility of 2.87 and is 3.83 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Morgan Stanley China is lower than 25 percent of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. You can use Morgan Stanley China to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The fund experiences a moderate downward daily trend and can be a good diversifier. Check odds of Morgan Stanley to be traded at $12.24 in 90 days.Good diversification
The correlation between Morgan Stanley China and DJI is -0.06 (i.e., Good diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Morgan Stanley China and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Morgan Stanley Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Morgan Stanley's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Morgan Stanley's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Morgan Stanley fund's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0438 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.60) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.53 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 2093.53 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.81 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential funds, we recommend comparing similar funds with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Morgan Stanley Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
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The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Morgan Stanley as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Morgan Stanley's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Morgan Stanley's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Morgan Stanley China.
Other Information on Investing in Morgan Fund
Morgan Stanley financial ratios help investors to determine whether Morgan Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Morgan with respect to the benefits of owning Morgan Stanley security.
| Money Flow Index Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators | |
| Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance |