Dassault Aviation Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

0IAX Stock   191.50  1.00  0.52%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dassault Aviation SA on the next trading day is expected to be 193.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 159.47. Dassault Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Dassault Aviation's Total Assets are comparatively stable compared to the past year. Cash is likely to gain to about 2 B in 2024, whereas Total Current Liabilities is likely to drop slightly above 11.4 B in 2024.
A naive forecasting model for Dassault Aviation is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Dassault Aviation SA value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Dassault Aviation Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Dassault Aviation SA on the next trading day is expected to be 193.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.61, mean absolute percentage error of 11.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 159.47.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Dassault Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Dassault Aviation's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Dassault Aviation Stock Forecast Pattern

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Dassault Aviation Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Dassault Aviation's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Dassault Aviation's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 191.82 and 194.69, respectively. We have considered Dassault Aviation's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
191.50
191.82
Downside
193.25
Expected Value
194.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Dassault Aviation stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Dassault Aviation stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.5346
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.6143
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0137
SAESum of the absolute errors159.4709
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Dassault Aviation SA. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Dassault Aviation. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Dassault Aviation

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Dassault Aviation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
189.07190.50191.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
180.74182.17209.55
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Dassault Aviation

For every potential investor in Dassault, whether a beginner or expert, Dassault Aviation's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Dassault Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Dassault. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Dassault Aviation's price trends.

Dassault Aviation Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Dassault Aviation stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Dassault Aviation could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dassault Aviation by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Dassault Aviation Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Dassault Aviation's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Dassault Aviation's current price.

Dassault Aviation Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Dassault Aviation stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Dassault Aviation shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Dassault Aviation stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Dassault Aviation SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Dassault Aviation Risk Indicators

The analysis of Dassault Aviation's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Dassault Aviation's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting dassault stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Dassault Stock Analysis

When running Dassault Aviation's price analysis, check to measure Dassault Aviation's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dassault Aviation is operating at the current time. Most of Dassault Aviation's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dassault Aviation's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dassault Aviation's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dassault Aviation to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.