Doosan Bobcat Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

241560 Stock   47,200  500.00  1.07%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Doosan Bobcat on the next trading day is expected to be 47,721 with a mean absolute deviation of 896.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53,805. Doosan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Doosan Bobcat stock prices and determine the direction of Doosan Bobcat's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Doosan Bobcat's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Doosan Bobcat works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Doosan Bobcat Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Doosan Bobcat on the next trading day is expected to be 47,721 with a mean absolute deviation of 896.75, mean absolute percentage error of 1,469,314, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53,805.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Doosan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Doosan Bobcat's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Doosan Bobcat Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Doosan BobcatDoosan Bobcat Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Doosan Bobcat Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Doosan Bobcat's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Doosan Bobcat's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47,718 and 47,724, respectively. We have considered Doosan Bobcat's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
47,200
47,718
Downside
47,721
Expected Value
47,724
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Doosan Bobcat stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Doosan Bobcat stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -251.1128
MADMean absolute deviation896.7494
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0219
SAESum of the absolute errors53804.9611
When Doosan Bobcat prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Doosan Bobcat trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Doosan Bobcat observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Doosan Bobcat

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Doosan Bobcat. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
47,19747,20047,203
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
44,83744,84051,920
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
37,20542,22247,240
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Doosan Bobcat. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Doosan Bobcat's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Doosan Bobcat's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Doosan Bobcat.

Other Forecasting Options for Doosan Bobcat

For every potential investor in Doosan, whether a beginner or expert, Doosan Bobcat's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Doosan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Doosan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Doosan Bobcat's price trends.

Doosan Bobcat Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Doosan Bobcat stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Doosan Bobcat could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Doosan Bobcat by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Doosan Bobcat Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Doosan Bobcat's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Doosan Bobcat's current price.

Doosan Bobcat Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Doosan Bobcat stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Doosan Bobcat shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Doosan Bobcat stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Doosan Bobcat entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Doosan Bobcat Risk Indicators

The analysis of Doosan Bobcat's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Doosan Bobcat's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting doosan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Doosan Bobcat

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Doosan Bobcat position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Doosan Bobcat will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Doosan Stock

  0.52055550 Shinhan FinancialPairCorr
  0.48105560 KB Financial GroupPairCorr
  0.35003920 Namyang DairyPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Doosan Bobcat could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Doosan Bobcat when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Doosan Bobcat - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Doosan Bobcat to buy it.
The correlation of Doosan Bobcat is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Doosan Bobcat moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Doosan Bobcat moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Doosan Bobcat can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Doosan Stock

Doosan Bobcat financial ratios help investors to determine whether Doosan Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Doosan with respect to the benefits of owning Doosan Bobcat security.