PagerDuty Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

2TY Stock   17.80  0.34  1.87%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PagerDuty on the next trading day is expected to be 17.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.91. PagerDuty Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for PagerDuty works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

PagerDuty Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PagerDuty on the next trading day is expected to be 17.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.91.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PagerDuty Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PagerDuty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

PagerDuty Stock Forecast Pattern

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PagerDuty Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting PagerDuty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. PagerDuty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.33 and 19.80, respectively. We have considered PagerDuty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17.80
17.57
Expected Value
19.80
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PagerDuty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PagerDuty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0315
MADMean absolute deviation0.3714
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0206
SAESum of the absolute errors21.9139
When PagerDuty prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any PagerDuty trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent PagerDuty observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for PagerDuty

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as PagerDuty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PagerDuty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
15.5717.8020.03
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.7517.9820.21
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17.5219.0520.58
Details

Other Forecasting Options for PagerDuty

For every potential investor in PagerDuty, whether a beginner or expert, PagerDuty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. PagerDuty Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in PagerDuty. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying PagerDuty's price trends.

PagerDuty Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with PagerDuty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of PagerDuty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing PagerDuty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PagerDuty Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of PagerDuty's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of PagerDuty's current price.

PagerDuty Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how PagerDuty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading PagerDuty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying PagerDuty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify PagerDuty entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

PagerDuty Risk Indicators

The analysis of PagerDuty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in PagerDuty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pagerduty stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for PagerDuty Stock Analysis

When running PagerDuty's price analysis, check to measure PagerDuty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy PagerDuty is operating at the current time. Most of PagerDuty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of PagerDuty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move PagerDuty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of PagerDuty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.