C Tech Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

3625 Stock  TWD 19.00  1.45  7.09%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of C Tech United on the next trading day is expected to be 19.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.70. 3625 Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for C Tech works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

C Tech Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of C Tech United on the next trading day is expected to be 19.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 3625 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that C Tech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

C Tech Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest C TechC Tech Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

C Tech Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting C Tech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. C Tech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.93 and 23.07, respectively. We have considered C Tech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
19.00
19.00
Expected Value
23.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of C Tech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent C Tech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1136
MADMean absolute deviation0.4017
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0263
SAESum of the absolute errors23.7
When C Tech United prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any C Tech United trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent C Tech observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for C Tech

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as C Tech United. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.4720.4524.43
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.3318.3122.29
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.2217.9722.73
Details

Other Forecasting Options for C Tech

For every potential investor in 3625, whether a beginner or expert, C Tech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 3625 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 3625. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying C Tech's price trends.

C Tech Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with C Tech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of C Tech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing C Tech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

C Tech United Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of C Tech's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of C Tech's current price.

C Tech Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how C Tech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading C Tech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying C Tech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify C Tech United entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

C Tech Risk Indicators

The analysis of C Tech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in C Tech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 3625 stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with C Tech

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if C Tech position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in C Tech will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with 3625 Stock

  0.886781 Advanced Energy SolutionPairCorr
  0.826121 Simplo TechnologyPairCorr

Moving against 3625 Stock

  0.671605 Walsin Lihwa CorpPairCorr
  0.622489 Amtran Technology SplitPairCorr
  0.586409 Voltronic Power TechPairCorr
  0.570051 YuantaP shares TaiwanPairCorr
  0.421514 Allis Electric SplitPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to C Tech could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace C Tech when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back C Tech - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling C Tech United to buy it.
The correlation of C Tech is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as C Tech moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if C Tech United moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for C Tech can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for 3625 Stock Analysis

When running C Tech's price analysis, check to measure C Tech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy C Tech is operating at the current time. Most of C Tech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of C Tech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move C Tech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of C Tech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.