GrandTech Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

6123 Stock  TWD 56.50  0.40  0.71%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of GrandTech CG Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 55.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.83. GrandTech Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through GrandTech price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

GrandTech Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of GrandTech CG Systems on the next trading day is expected to be 55.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.76, mean absolute percentage error of 0.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.83.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GrandTech Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GrandTech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

GrandTech Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest GrandTechGrandTech Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

GrandTech Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting GrandTech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. GrandTech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 54.75 and 56.45, respectively. We have considered GrandTech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
56.50
55.60
Expected Value
56.45
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GrandTech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GrandTech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.7528
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.7554
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0129
SAESum of the absolute errors46.8336
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as GrandTech CG Systems historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for GrandTech

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GrandTech CG Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
55.6556.5057.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
53.8954.7462.15
Details

Other Forecasting Options for GrandTech

For every potential investor in GrandTech, whether a beginner or expert, GrandTech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GrandTech Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GrandTech. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying GrandTech's price trends.

GrandTech Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with GrandTech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of GrandTech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing GrandTech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

GrandTech CG Systems Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of GrandTech's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of GrandTech's current price.

GrandTech Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how GrandTech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading GrandTech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying GrandTech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify GrandTech CG Systems entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

GrandTech Risk Indicators

The analysis of GrandTech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in GrandTech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting grandtech stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with GrandTech

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if GrandTech position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in GrandTech will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with GrandTech Stock

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Moving against GrandTech Stock

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  0.722883 China DevelopmentPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to GrandTech could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace GrandTech when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back GrandTech - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling GrandTech CG Systems to buy it.
The correlation of GrandTech is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as GrandTech moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if GrandTech CG Systems moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for GrandTech can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for GrandTech Stock Analysis

When running GrandTech's price analysis, check to measure GrandTech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GrandTech is operating at the current time. Most of GrandTech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GrandTech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GrandTech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GrandTech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.