Xiangyu Medical Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

688626 Stock   30.53  0.67  2.15%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Xiangyu Medical Co on the next trading day is expected to be 29.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.88. Xiangyu Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Xiangyu Medical stock prices and determine the direction of Xiangyu Medical Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Xiangyu Medical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Xiangyu Medical's Other Current Liabilities is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Cash is expected to grow to about 675.7 M, whereas Total Assets are forecasted to decline to about 1.9 B.
A naive forecasting model for Xiangyu Medical is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Xiangyu Medical Co value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Xiangyu Medical Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Xiangyu Medical Co on the next trading day is expected to be 29.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.11, mean absolute percentage error of 2.72, and the sum of the absolute errors of 67.88.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Xiangyu Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Xiangyu Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Xiangyu Medical Stock Forecast Pattern

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Xiangyu Medical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Xiangyu Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Xiangyu Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 24.48 and 33.80, respectively. We have considered Xiangyu Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
30.53
29.14
Expected Value
33.80
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Xiangyu Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Xiangyu Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.1113
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1128
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0393
SAESum of the absolute errors67.8824
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Xiangyu Medical Co. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Xiangyu Medical. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Xiangyu Medical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Xiangyu Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
28.1832.8437.50
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.8024.4633.58
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
30.4031.1731.94
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Xiangyu Medical. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Xiangyu Medical's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Xiangyu Medical's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Xiangyu Medical.

Other Forecasting Options for Xiangyu Medical

For every potential investor in Xiangyu, whether a beginner or expert, Xiangyu Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Xiangyu Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Xiangyu. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Xiangyu Medical's price trends.

Xiangyu Medical Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Xiangyu Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Xiangyu Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Xiangyu Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Xiangyu Medical Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Xiangyu Medical's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Xiangyu Medical's current price.

Xiangyu Medical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Xiangyu Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Xiangyu Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Xiangyu Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Xiangyu Medical Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Xiangyu Medical Risk Indicators

The analysis of Xiangyu Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Xiangyu Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting xiangyu stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in Xiangyu Stock

Xiangyu Medical financial ratios help investors to determine whether Xiangyu Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Xiangyu with respect to the benefits of owning Xiangyu Medical security.