Barrick Gold Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| ABX Stock | CAD 24.99 0.68 2.80% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Barrick Gold Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 23.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.86. Barrick Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Barrick Gold's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Barrick Gold's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Barrick Gold fundamentals over time.
Barrick |
Barrick Gold Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Barrick Gold Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 23.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.75, mean absolute percentage error of 0.99, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Barrick Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Barrick Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Barrick Gold Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Barrick Gold | Barrick Gold Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Barrick Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Barrick Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Barrick Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.16 and 25.70, respectively. We have considered Barrick Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Barrick Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Barrick Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.0985 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7518 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0285 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 45.858 |
Predictive Modules for Barrick Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Barrick Gold Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Barrick Gold
For every potential investor in Barrick, whether a beginner or expert, Barrick Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Barrick Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Barrick. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Barrick Gold's price trends.Barrick Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Barrick Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Barrick Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Barrick Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Barrick Gold Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Barrick Gold's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Barrick Gold's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Barrick Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Barrick Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Barrick Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Barrick Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Barrick Gold Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Barrick Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of Barrick Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Barrick Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting barrick stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Variance | 3.28 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Barrick Gold
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Barrick Gold position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Barrick Gold will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Barrick Stock
Moving against Barrick Stock
| 0.83 | FFH | Fairfax Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | WCN | Waste Connections | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | CSU | Constellation Software | PairCorr |
| 0.62 | FSV | FirstService Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.47 | IFC | Intact Financial | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Barrick Gold could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Barrick Gold when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Barrick Gold - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Barrick Gold Corp to buy it.
The correlation of Barrick Gold is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Barrick Gold moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Barrick Gold Corp moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Barrick Gold can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Barrick Gold to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.