Alpha Cognition Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

ACOG Stock   5.03  0.10  2.03%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alpha Cognition Common on the next trading day is expected to be 5.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.46. Alpha Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alpha Cognition's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Alpha Cognition works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Alpha Cognition Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alpha Cognition Common on the next trading day is expected to be 5.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.46.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alpha Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alpha Cognition's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alpha Cognition Stock Forecast Pattern

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Alpha Cognition Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alpha Cognition's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alpha Cognition's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 12.97, respectively. We have considered Alpha Cognition's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.03
5.08
Expected Value
12.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alpha Cognition stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alpha Cognition stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1272
MADMean absolute deviation0.3608
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0634
SAESum of the absolute errors10.4619
When Alpha Cognition Common prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Alpha Cognition Common trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Alpha Cognition observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Alpha Cognition

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alpha Cognition Common. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.244.7012.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.244.8112.68
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Alpha Cognition

For every potential investor in Alpha, whether a beginner or expert, Alpha Cognition's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alpha Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alpha. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alpha Cognition's price trends.

Alpha Cognition Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alpha Cognition stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alpha Cognition could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alpha Cognition by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alpha Cognition Common Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alpha Cognition's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alpha Cognition's current price.

Alpha Cognition Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alpha Cognition stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alpha Cognition shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alpha Cognition stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alpha Cognition Common entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alpha Cognition Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alpha Cognition's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alpha Cognition's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alpha stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether Alpha Cognition Common is a strong investment it is important to analyze Alpha Cognition's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Alpha Cognition's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Alpha Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alpha Cognition to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Is Pharmaceutical Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alpha Cognition. If investors know Alpha will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alpha Cognition listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Alpha Cognition Common is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alpha that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alpha Cognition's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alpha Cognition's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alpha Cognition's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alpha Cognition's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alpha Cognition's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alpha Cognition is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alpha Cognition's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.