Polychem Indonesia Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

ADMG Stock  IDR 114.00  1.00  0.87%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Polychem Indonesia Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 114.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.77 and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.00. Polychem Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Polychem Indonesia Tbk is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Polychem Indonesia 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Polychem Indonesia Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 114.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.77, mean absolute percentage error of 4.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Polychem Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Polychem Indonesia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Polychem Indonesia Stock Forecast Pattern

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Polychem Indonesia Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Polychem Indonesia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Polychem Indonesia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 113.20 and 116.30, respectively. We have considered Polychem Indonesia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
114.00
113.20
Downside
114.75
Expected Value
116.30
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Polychem Indonesia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Polychem Indonesia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.3363
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.5877
MADMean absolute deviation1.7719
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0143
SAESum of the absolute errors101.0
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Polychem Indonesia. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Polychem Indonesia Tbk and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Polychem Indonesia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Polychem Indonesia Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
112.45114.00115.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
88.5190.06125.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
111.89120.37128.84
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Polychem Indonesia

For every potential investor in Polychem, whether a beginner or expert, Polychem Indonesia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Polychem Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Polychem. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Polychem Indonesia's price trends.

Polychem Indonesia Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Polychem Indonesia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Polychem Indonesia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Polychem Indonesia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Polychem Indonesia Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Polychem Indonesia's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Polychem Indonesia's current price.

Polychem Indonesia Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Polychem Indonesia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Polychem Indonesia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Polychem Indonesia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Polychem Indonesia Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Polychem Indonesia Risk Indicators

The analysis of Polychem Indonesia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Polychem Indonesia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting polychem stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Polychem Stock

Polychem Indonesia financial ratios help investors to determine whether Polychem Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Polychem with respect to the benefits of owning Polychem Indonesia security.