Ariel Focus Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

AFOYX Fund  USD 17.73  0.03  0.17%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ariel Focus Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 17.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.33. Ariel Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Ariel Focus - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Ariel Focus prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Ariel Focus price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Ariel Focus Fund.

Ariel Focus Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ariel Focus Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 17.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.33.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ariel Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ariel Focus' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ariel Focus Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Ariel Focus Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ariel Focus' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ariel Focus' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.79 and 18.65, respectively. We have considered Ariel Focus' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17.73
17.72
Expected Value
18.65
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ariel Focus mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ariel Focus mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0282
MADMean absolute deviation0.1243
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0072
SAESum of the absolute errors7.3332
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Ariel Focus observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Ariel Focus Fund observations.

Predictive Modules for Ariel Focus

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ariel Focus Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ariel Focus' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.8017.7318.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.0717.0017.93
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17.3217.8018.29
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Ariel Focus

For every potential investor in Ariel, whether a beginner or expert, Ariel Focus' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ariel Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ariel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ariel Focus' price trends.

Ariel Focus Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ariel Focus mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ariel Focus could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ariel Focus by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ariel Focus Fund Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ariel Focus' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ariel Focus' current price.

Ariel Focus Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ariel Focus mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ariel Focus shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ariel Focus mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Ariel Focus Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ariel Focus Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ariel Focus' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ariel Focus' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ariel mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Ariel Mutual Fund

Ariel Focus financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ariel Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ariel with respect to the benefits of owning Ariel Focus security.
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