Agilon Health Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

AGL Stock  USD 1.99  0.11  5.24%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of agilon health on the next trading day is expected to be 1.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.14. Agilon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Agilon Health's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Agilon Health's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Agilon Health fundamentals over time.
  
Receivables Turnover is expected to rise to 7.33 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 195.74. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to rise to about 439.7 M this year, although the value of Net Loss will most likely fall to (128.7 M).
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Agilon Health price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Agilon Health Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of agilon health on the next trading day is expected to be 1.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.14.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Agilon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Agilon Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Agilon Health Stock Forecast Pattern

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Agilon Health Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Agilon Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Agilon Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 9.42, respectively. We have considered Agilon Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.99
1.60
Expected Value
9.42
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Agilon Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Agilon Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.5975
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2603
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1148
SAESum of the absolute errors16.1397
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as agilon health historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Agilon Health

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as agilon health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.091.869.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.818.6416.47
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
26.0328.6031.75
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Agilon Health. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Agilon Health's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Agilon Health's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in agilon health.

Other Forecasting Options for Agilon Health

For every potential investor in Agilon, whether a beginner or expert, Agilon Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Agilon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Agilon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Agilon Health's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

agilon health Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Agilon Health's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Agilon Health's current price.

Agilon Health Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Agilon Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Agilon Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Agilon Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify agilon health entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Agilon Health Risk Indicators

The analysis of Agilon Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Agilon Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting agilon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether agilon health is a strong investment it is important to analyze Agilon Health's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Agilon Health's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Agilon Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agilon Health to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Agilon Stock please use our How to buy in Agilon Stock guide.
You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agilon Health. If investors know Agilon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Agilon Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
11.951
Earnings Share
(0.76)
Revenue Per Share
13.717
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.276
Return On Assets
(0.1)
The market value of agilon health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Agilon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Agilon Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Agilon Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Agilon Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Agilon Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agilon Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Agilon Health is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agilon Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.