Sumber Alfaria Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AMRT Stock  IDR 2,990  60.00  1.97%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya on the next trading day is expected to be 3,179 with a mean absolute deviation of 76.85 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,765. Sumber Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Sumber Alfaria is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Sumber Alfaria Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya on the next trading day is expected to be 3,179 with a mean absolute deviation of 76.85, mean absolute percentage error of 8,891, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4,765.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sumber Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sumber Alfaria's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Sumber Alfaria Stock Forecast Pattern

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Sumber Alfaria Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Sumber Alfaria's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sumber Alfaria's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3,177 and 3,182, respectively. We have considered Sumber Alfaria's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2,990
3,179
Expected Value
3,182
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sumber Alfaria stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sumber Alfaria stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria129.0412
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation76.8481
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0241
SAESum of the absolute errors4764.5809
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Sumber Alfaria. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Sumber Alfaria

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sumber Alfaria Trijaya. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2,9882,9902,992
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2,6022,6043,289
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
2,8042,9443,083
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Sumber Alfaria

For every potential investor in Sumber, whether a beginner or expert, Sumber Alfaria's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sumber Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sumber. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sumber Alfaria's price trends.

Sumber Alfaria Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sumber Alfaria stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sumber Alfaria could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sumber Alfaria by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sumber Alfaria's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sumber Alfaria's current price.

Sumber Alfaria Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sumber Alfaria stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sumber Alfaria shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sumber Alfaria stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sumber Alfaria Trijaya entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Sumber Alfaria Risk Indicators

The analysis of Sumber Alfaria's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sumber Alfaria's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sumber stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Sumber Stock

Sumber Alfaria financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sumber Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sumber with respect to the benefits of owning Sumber Alfaria security.