ARK Innovation Etf Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ARKK Etf | USD 59.24 0.16 0.27% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ARK Innovation ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 59.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.95. ARK Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
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ARK Innovation Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ARK Innovation ETF on the next trading day is expected to be 59.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03, mean absolute percentage error of 1.90, and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ARK Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ARK Innovation's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ARK Innovation Etf Forecast Pattern
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ARK Innovation Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ARK Innovation's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ARK Innovation's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 56.90 and 61.80, respectively. We have considered ARK Innovation's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ARK Innovation etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ARK Innovation etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1581 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0325 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0192 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 61.9512 |
Predictive Modules for ARK Innovation
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ARK Innovation ETF. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for ARK Innovation
For every potential investor in ARK, whether a beginner or expert, ARK Innovation's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ARK Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ARK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ARK Innovation's price trends.ARK Innovation Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ARK Innovation etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ARK Innovation could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ARK Innovation by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ARK Innovation ETF Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ARK Innovation's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ARK Innovation's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ARK Innovation Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ARK Innovation etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ARK Innovation shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ARK Innovation etf market strength indicators, traders can identify ARK Innovation ETF entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 176799.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.12) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 58.99 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 59.07 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.17 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.16) |
ARK Innovation Risk Indicators
The analysis of ARK Innovation's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ARK Innovation's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ark etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Variance | 5.77 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.84 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.99) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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The market value of ARK Innovation ETF is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ARK that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ARK Innovation's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ARK Innovation's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ARK Innovation's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ARK Innovation's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ARK Innovation's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ARK Innovation is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ARK Innovation's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.