Altigen Communications OTC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ATGNDelisted Stock  USD 0.55  0.01  1.85%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Altigen Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 0.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.49. Altigen OTC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Altigen Communications is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Altigen Communications value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Altigen Communications Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Altigen Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 0.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Altigen OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Altigen Communications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Altigen Communications OTC Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Altigen CommunicationsAltigen Communications Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Altigen Communications otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Altigen Communications otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria102.1968
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0266
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0382
SAESum of the absolute errors1.4917
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Altigen Communications. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Altigen Communications. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Altigen Communications

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Altigen Communications. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.550.550.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.520.520.61
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Altigen Communications. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Altigen Communications' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Altigen Communications' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Altigen Communications.

Altigen Communications Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Altigen Communications otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Altigen Communications could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Altigen Communications by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Altigen Communications Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Altigen Communications otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Altigen Communications shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Altigen Communications otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Altigen Communications entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Altigen Communications Risk Indicators

The analysis of Altigen Communications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Altigen Communications' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting altigen otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Altigen Communications

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Altigen Communications position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Altigen Communications will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Altigen OTC Stock

  0.7FEIM Frequency Electronics Earnings Call This WeekPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Altigen Communications could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Altigen Communications when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Altigen Communications - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Altigen Communications to buy it.
The correlation of Altigen Communications is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Altigen Communications moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Altigen Communications moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Altigen Communications can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any otc stock could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price.
Note that the Altigen Communications information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Altigen Communications' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

Other Consideration for investing in Altigen OTC Stock

If you are still planning to invest in Altigen Communications check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Altigen Communications' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
Portfolio Rebalancing
Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets
Aroon Oscillator
Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
Sectors
List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities
USA ETFs
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites