Alibaba Group Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BABA Stock | USD 86.59 1.41 1.66% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alibaba Group Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 78.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 192.63. Alibaba Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alibaba Group stock prices and determine the direction of Alibaba Group Holding's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alibaba Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Alibaba |
Alibaba Group Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Alibaba Group's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2009-12-31 | Previous Quarter 219.2 B | Current Value 183 B | Quarterly Volatility 102.2 B |
Alibaba Group Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alibaba Group Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 78.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.11, mean absolute percentage error of 14.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 192.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alibaba Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alibaba Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alibaba Group Stock Forecast Pattern
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Alibaba Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alibaba Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alibaba Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 75.50 and 81.18, respectively. We have considered Alibaba Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alibaba Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alibaba Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.5986 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.1069 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0321 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 192.6304 |
Predictive Modules for Alibaba Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alibaba Group Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Alibaba Group
For every potential investor in Alibaba, whether a beginner or expert, Alibaba Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alibaba Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alibaba. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alibaba Group's price trends.Alibaba Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alibaba Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alibaba Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alibaba Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alibaba Group Holding Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alibaba Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alibaba Group's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alibaba Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alibaba Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alibaba Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alibaba Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alibaba Group Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 366182.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.5975 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 86.36 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 86.44 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.93 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.41 |
Alibaba Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alibaba Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alibaba Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alibaba stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.03 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.81 | |||
| Variance | 7.89 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Alibaba Group Holding offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Alibaba Group's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Alibaba Group Holding Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Alibaba Group Holding Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alibaba Group to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Is Broadline Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alibaba Group. If investors know Alibaba will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alibaba Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.26) | Earnings Share 4.86 | Revenue Per Share 382.182 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.039 | Return On Assets 0.0468 |
The market value of Alibaba Group Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alibaba that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alibaba Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alibaba Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alibaba Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alibaba Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alibaba Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alibaba Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alibaba Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.