Balfour Beatty Pink Sheet Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

BAFBF Stock  USD 5.85  0.62  11.85%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Balfour Beatty plc on the next trading day is expected to be 5.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.41. Balfour Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Balfour Beatty's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Balfour Beatty works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Balfour Beatty Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Balfour Beatty plc on the next trading day is expected to be 5.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.41.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Balfour Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Balfour Beatty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Balfour Beatty Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Balfour Beatty Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Balfour Beatty's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Balfour Beatty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.14 and 8.56, respectively. We have considered Balfour Beatty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.85
5.85
Expected Value
8.56
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Balfour Beatty pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Balfour Beatty pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0029
MADMean absolute deviation0.0408
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0073
SAESum of the absolute errors2.41
When Balfour Beatty plc prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Balfour Beatty plc trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Balfour Beatty observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Balfour Beatty

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Balfour Beatty plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
3.145.858.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.164.877.58
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Balfour Beatty. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Balfour Beatty's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Balfour Beatty's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Balfour Beatty plc.

Other Forecasting Options for Balfour Beatty

For every potential investor in Balfour, whether a beginner or expert, Balfour Beatty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Balfour Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Balfour. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Balfour Beatty's price trends.

Balfour Beatty Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Balfour Beatty pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Balfour Beatty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Balfour Beatty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Balfour Beatty plc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Balfour Beatty's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Balfour Beatty's current price.

Balfour Beatty Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Balfour Beatty pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Balfour Beatty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Balfour Beatty pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Balfour Beatty plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Balfour Beatty Risk Indicators

The analysis of Balfour Beatty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Balfour Beatty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting balfour pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Balfour Pink Sheet

Balfour Beatty financial ratios help investors to determine whether Balfour Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Balfour with respect to the benefits of owning Balfour Beatty security.