Bio Path Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BPTH Stock | USD 0.77 0.03 3.75% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bio Path Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 0.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.91. Bio Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bio Path's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Bio |
Bio Path Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Bio Path's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2005-06-30 | Previous Quarter 4 M | Current Value 562 K | Quarterly Volatility 7.9 M |
Bio Path Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bio Path Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 0.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bio Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bio Path's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bio Path Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bio Path | Bio Path Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bio Path Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bio Path's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bio Path's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 7.48, respectively. We have considered Bio Path's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bio Path stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bio Path stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.5523 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0478 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0502 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.9128 |
Predictive Modules for Bio Path
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bio Path Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bio Path's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Bio Path
For every potential investor in Bio, whether a beginner or expert, Bio Path's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bio Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bio. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bio Path's price trends.View Bio Path Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bio Path Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bio Path's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bio Path's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bio Path Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bio Path stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bio Path shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bio Path stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bio Path Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bio Path Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bio Path's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bio Path's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bio stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.79 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.52 | |||
| Variance | 42.56 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Bio Path Holdings offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Bio Path's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Bio Path Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Bio Path Holdings Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bio Path to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bio Path. If investors know Bio will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bio Path listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (8.34) | Return On Assets (1.40) | Return On Equity (3.66) |
The market value of Bio Path Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bio that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bio Path's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bio Path's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bio Path's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bio Path's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bio Path's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bio Path is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bio Path's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.