Emerson Electric Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

EMR Stock  EUR 125.76  0.58  0.46%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Emerson Electric Co on the next trading day is expected to be 124.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 231.12. Emerson Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Emerson Electric's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Emerson Electric price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Emerson Electric Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Emerson Electric Co on the next trading day is expected to be 124.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.79, mean absolute percentage error of 23.87, and the sum of the absolute errors of 231.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Emerson Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Emerson Electric's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Emerson Electric Stock Forecast Pattern

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Emerson Electric Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Emerson Electric's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Emerson Electric's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 121.64 and 126.38, respectively. We have considered Emerson Electric's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
125.76
121.64
Downside
124.01
Expected Value
126.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Emerson Electric stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Emerson Electric stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.2832
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.7888
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0361
SAESum of the absolute errors231.1183
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Emerson Electric Co historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Emerson Electric

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Emerson Electric. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
122.81125.18127.55
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
112.66137.55139.92
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Emerson Electric

For every potential investor in Emerson, whether a beginner or expert, Emerson Electric's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Emerson Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Emerson. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Emerson Electric's price trends.

Emerson Electric Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Emerson Electric stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Emerson Electric could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Emerson Electric by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Emerson Electric Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Emerson Electric's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Emerson Electric's current price.

Emerson Electric Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Emerson Electric stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Emerson Electric shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Emerson Electric stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Emerson Electric Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Emerson Electric Risk Indicators

The analysis of Emerson Electric's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Emerson Electric's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting emerson stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Emerson Stock

Emerson Electric financial ratios help investors to determine whether Emerson Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Emerson with respect to the benefits of owning Emerson Electric security.