Excellon Resources Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

EXN Stock  CAD 0.10  0.01  9.09%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Excellon Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 0.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.36. Excellon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Excellon Resources' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Excellon Resources' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Excellon Resources fundamentals over time.
  
As of the 12th of December 2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 1.61, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 16.40. . As of the 12th of December 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 45 M, while Net Loss is likely to drop (17.8 M).
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Excellon Resources price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Excellon Resources Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Excellon Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 0.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000053, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.36.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Excellon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Excellon Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Excellon Resources Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Excellon ResourcesExcellon Resources Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Excellon Resources Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Excellon Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Excellon Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 6.63, respectively. We have considered Excellon Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.10
0.10
Expected Value
6.63
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Excellon Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Excellon Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.1075
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0059
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0549
SAESum of the absolute errors0.3646
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Excellon Resources historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Excellon Resources

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Excellon Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.010.107.14
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.097.13
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Excellon Resources

For every potential investor in Excellon, whether a beginner or expert, Excellon Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Excellon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Excellon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Excellon Resources' price trends.

Excellon Resources Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Excellon Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Excellon Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Excellon Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Excellon Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Excellon Resources' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Excellon Resources' current price.

Excellon Resources Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Excellon Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Excellon Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Excellon Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Excellon Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Excellon Resources Risk Indicators

The analysis of Excellon Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Excellon Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting excellon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Excellon Resources

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Excellon Resources position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Excellon Resources will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Excellon Stock

  0.45WCN Waste ConnectionsPairCorr
  0.31BYD Boyd Group ServicesPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Excellon Resources could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Excellon Resources when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Excellon Resources - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Excellon Resources to buy it.
The correlation of Excellon Resources is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Excellon Resources moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Excellon Resources moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Excellon Resources can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Excellon Stock

Excellon Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Excellon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Excellon with respect to the benefits of owning Excellon Resources security.