Essex Property Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

EXP Stock  EUR 271.90  2.50  0.93%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Essex Property Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 278.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 346.41. Essex Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Essex Property's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Essex Property is based on an artificially constructed time series of Essex Property daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Essex Property 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Essex Property Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 278.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.54, mean absolute percentage error of 65.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 346.41.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Essex Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Essex Property's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Essex Property Stock Forecast Pattern

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Essex Property Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Essex Property's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Essex Property's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 276.96 and 279.69, respectively. We have considered Essex Property's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
271.90
276.96
Downside
278.32
Expected Value
279.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Essex Property stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Essex Property stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria107.5869
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.0856
MADMean absolute deviation6.5361
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0236
SAESum of the absolute errors346.4125
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Essex Property Trust 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Essex Property

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Essex Property Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
270.54271.90273.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
244.71273.57274.93
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Essex Property

For every potential investor in Essex, whether a beginner or expert, Essex Property's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Essex Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Essex. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Essex Property's price trends.

Essex Property Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Essex Property stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Essex Property could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Essex Property by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Essex Property Trust Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Essex Property's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Essex Property's current price.

Essex Property Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Essex Property stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Essex Property shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Essex Property stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Essex Property Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Essex Property Risk Indicators

The analysis of Essex Property's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Essex Property's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting essex stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Essex Stock

When determining whether Essex Property Trust is a strong investment it is important to analyze Essex Property's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Essex Property's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Essex Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Essex Property to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Essex Property's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Essex Property is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Essex Property's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.