FIRST MUTUAL Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| FMP Stock | 123.10 0.00 0.00% |
FIRST |
FIRST MUTUAL 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of FIRST MUTUAL PROPERTIES on the next trading day is expected to be 101.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.29, mean absolute percentage error of 109.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 339.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FIRST Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FIRST MUTUAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
FIRST MUTUAL Stock Forecast Pattern
FIRST MUTUAL Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting FIRST MUTUAL's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FIRST MUTUAL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 97.24 and 106.16, respectively. We have considered FIRST MUTUAL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FIRST MUTUAL stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FIRST MUTUAL stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 86.0454 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -7.7369 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 8.2854 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0842 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 339.7 |
Predictive Modules for FIRST MUTUAL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FIRST MUTUAL PROPERTIES. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FIRST MUTUAL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for FIRST MUTUAL
For every potential investor in FIRST, whether a beginner or expert, FIRST MUTUAL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FIRST Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FIRST. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FIRST MUTUAL's price trends.FIRST MUTUAL Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FIRST MUTUAL stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FIRST MUTUAL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FIRST MUTUAL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FIRST MUTUAL PROPERTIES Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of FIRST MUTUAL's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of FIRST MUTUAL's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
FIRST MUTUAL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FIRST MUTUAL stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FIRST MUTUAL shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FIRST MUTUAL stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FIRST MUTUAL PROPERTIES entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
FIRST MUTUAL Risk Indicators
The analysis of FIRST MUTUAL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FIRST MUTUAL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.74 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.5 | |||
| Variance | 20.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 30.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.11) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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