Hellenic Telecommunicatio Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

HTO Stock  EUR 14.93  0.23  1.52%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hellenic Telecommunications Organization on the next trading day is expected to be 15.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.14. Hellenic Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Hellenic Telecommunicatio is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Hellenic Telecommunications Organization value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Hellenic Telecommunicatio Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hellenic Telecommunications Organization on the next trading day is expected to be 15.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.14.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hellenic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hellenic Telecommunicatio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hellenic Telecommunicatio Stock Forecast Pattern

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Hellenic Telecommunicatio Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hellenic Telecommunicatio's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hellenic Telecommunicatio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.88 and 16.58, respectively. We have considered Hellenic Telecommunicatio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.93
15.23
Expected Value
16.58
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hellenic Telecommunicatio stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hellenic Telecommunicatio stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.6559
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1334
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0086
SAESum of the absolute errors8.1365
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Hellenic Telecommunications Organization. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Hellenic Telecommunicatio. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Hellenic Telecommunicatio

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hellenic Telecommunicatio. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.5814.9316.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.8313.1816.42
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
14.9015.0415.18
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Hellenic Telecommunicatio

For every potential investor in Hellenic, whether a beginner or expert, Hellenic Telecommunicatio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hellenic Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hellenic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hellenic Telecommunicatio's price trends.

Hellenic Telecommunicatio Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hellenic Telecommunicatio stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hellenic Telecommunicatio could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hellenic Telecommunicatio by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hellenic Telecommunicatio Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hellenic Telecommunicatio's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hellenic Telecommunicatio's current price.

Hellenic Telecommunicatio Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hellenic Telecommunicatio stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hellenic Telecommunicatio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hellenic Telecommunicatio stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hellenic Telecommunications Organization entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hellenic Telecommunicatio Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hellenic Telecommunicatio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hellenic Telecommunicatio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hellenic stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

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Additional Tools for Hellenic Stock Analysis

When running Hellenic Telecommunicatio's price analysis, check to measure Hellenic Telecommunicatio's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hellenic Telecommunicatio is operating at the current time. Most of Hellenic Telecommunicatio's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hellenic Telecommunicatio's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hellenic Telecommunicatio's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hellenic Telecommunicatio to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.