Western Asset Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

MHF Fund  USD 7.13  0.03  0.42%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Western Asset Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 7.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.25. Western Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Western Asset's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Western Asset price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Western Asset Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Western Asset Municipal on the next trading day is expected to be 7.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.25.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Western Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Western Asset's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Western Asset Fund Forecast Pattern

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Western Asset Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Western Asset's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Western Asset's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.52 and 7.64, respectively. We have considered Western Asset's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.13
7.08
Expected Value
7.64
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Western Asset fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Western Asset fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.3021
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0697
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0099
SAESum of the absolute errors4.254
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Western Asset Municipal historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Western Asset

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Western Asset Municipal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.547.107.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.537.097.65
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Western Asset. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Western Asset's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Western Asset's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Western Asset Municipal.

Other Forecasting Options for Western Asset

For every potential investor in Western, whether a beginner or expert, Western Asset's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Western Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Western. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Western Asset's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Western Asset Municipal Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Western Asset's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Western Asset's current price.

Western Asset Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Western Asset fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Western Asset shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Western Asset fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Western Asset Municipal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Western Asset Risk Indicators

The analysis of Western Asset's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Western Asset's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting western fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Western Fund

Western Asset financial ratios help investors to determine whether Western Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Western with respect to the benefits of owning Western Asset security.
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