Microsoft Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MSFT Stock | USD 422.99 5.00 1.17% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Microsoft on the next trading day is expected to be 422.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 242.38. Microsoft Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Microsoft |
Open Interest Against 2024-11-29 Microsoft Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Microsoft's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Microsoft's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Microsoft stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Microsoft's open interest, investors have to compare it to Microsoft's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Microsoft is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Microsoft. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Microsoft Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Microsoft on the next trading day is expected to be 422.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.04, mean absolute percentage error of 31.89, and the sum of the absolute errors of 242.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Microsoft Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Microsoft's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Microsoft Stock Forecast Pattern
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Microsoft Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Microsoft's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Microsoft's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 421.16 and 423.80, respectively. We have considered Microsoft's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Microsoft stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Microsoft stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.767 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.0397 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0096 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 242.38 |
Predictive Modules for Microsoft
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microsoft. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Microsoft
For every potential investor in Microsoft, whether a beginner or expert, Microsoft's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Microsoft Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Microsoft. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Microsoft's price trends.Microsoft Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Microsoft stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Microsoft could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Microsoft by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Microsoft Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Microsoft's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Microsoft's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Microsoft Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Microsoft stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Microsoft shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Microsoft stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Microsoft entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 209654.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.96) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 424.63 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 424.08 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (4.13) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (5.00) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 54.82 |
Microsoft Risk Indicators
The analysis of Microsoft's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Microsoft's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting microsoft stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8978 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Variance | 1.67 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.45 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.86) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Microsoft Stock Analysis
When running Microsoft's price analysis, check to measure Microsoft's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microsoft is operating at the current time. Most of Microsoft's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microsoft's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microsoft's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microsoft to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.