National Australia Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

NABPI Stock   104.00  0.22  0.21%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of National Australia Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 104.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.03. National Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast National Australia stock prices and determine the direction of National Australia Bank's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of National Australia's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
The current year's Accounts Payable is expected to grow to about 7.7 B, whereas Total Assets are forecasted to decline to about 1.1 T.
A four-period moving average forecast model for National Australia Bank is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

National Australia 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of National Australia Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 104.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.42, mean absolute percentage error of 0.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.03.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Australia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

National Australia Stock Forecast Pattern

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National Australia Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting National Australia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Australia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 103.37 and 104.74, respectively. We have considered National Australia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
104.00
103.37
Downside
104.06
Expected Value
104.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Australia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Australia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria109.9563
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0051
MADMean absolute deviation0.4215
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0041
SAESum of the absolute errors24.025
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of National Australia. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for National Australia Bank and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for National Australia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Australia Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
103.09103.78104.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
102.86103.55104.24
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
103.28104.54105.79
Details

Other Forecasting Options for National Australia

For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Australia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Australia's price trends.

National Australia Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Australia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Australia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Australia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

National Australia Bank Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of National Australia's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of National Australia's current price.

National Australia Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Australia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Australia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Australia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Australia Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

National Australia Risk Indicators

The analysis of National Australia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Australia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Other Information on Investing in National Stock

National Australia financial ratios help investors to determine whether National Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in National with respect to the benefits of owning National Australia security.