Nusa Raya Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| NRCA Stock | IDR 350.00 2.00 0.57% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nusa Raya Cipta on the next trading day is expected to be 348.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 398.00. Nusa Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Nusa |
Nusa Raya Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nusa Raya Cipta on the next trading day is expected to be 348.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.75, mean absolute percentage error of 104.88, and the sum of the absolute errors of 398.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nusa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nusa Raya's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Nusa Raya Stock Forecast Pattern
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Nusa Raya Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Nusa Raya's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nusa Raya's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 345.44 and 350.56, respectively. We have considered Nusa Raya's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nusa Raya stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nusa Raya stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.7966 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.7458 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0174 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 398.0 |
Predictive Modules for Nusa Raya
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nusa Raya Cipta. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Nusa Raya
For every potential investor in Nusa, whether a beginner or expert, Nusa Raya's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nusa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nusa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nusa Raya's price trends.Nusa Raya Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nusa Raya stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nusa Raya could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nusa Raya by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Nusa Raya Cipta Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nusa Raya's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nusa Raya's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Nusa Raya Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nusa Raya stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nusa Raya shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nusa Raya stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Nusa Raya Cipta entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Nusa Raya Risk Indicators
The analysis of Nusa Raya's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nusa Raya's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nusa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.53 | |||
| Variance | 6.39 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Nusa Raya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Nusa Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Nusa with respect to the benefits of owning Nusa Raya security.