OMV AG Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

OMVKY Stock  USD 9.86  0.01  0.10%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of OMV AG PK on the next trading day is expected to be 9.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.62. OMV Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for OMV AG is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of OMV AG PK value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

OMV AG Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of OMV AG PK on the next trading day is expected to be 9.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OMV Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OMV AG's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

OMV AG Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest OMV AGOMV AG Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

OMV AG Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting OMV AG's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OMV AG's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.63 and 11.06, respectively. We have considered OMV AG's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.86
9.84
Expected Value
11.06
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OMV AG pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OMV AG pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.8431
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0921
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0089
SAESum of the absolute errors5.6162
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of OMV AG PK. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict OMV AG. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for OMV AG

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OMV AG PK. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.649.8611.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.409.6210.84
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
9.7910.0610.33
Details

Other Forecasting Options for OMV AG

For every potential investor in OMV, whether a beginner or expert, OMV AG's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OMV Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OMV. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OMV AG's price trends.

OMV AG Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OMV AG pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OMV AG could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OMV AG by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

OMV AG PK Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of OMV AG's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of OMV AG's current price.

OMV AG Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how OMV AG pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading OMV AG shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying OMV AG pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify OMV AG PK entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

OMV AG Risk Indicators

The analysis of OMV AG's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OMV AG's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting omv pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for OMV Pink Sheet Analysis

When running OMV AG's price analysis, check to measure OMV AG's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OMV AG is operating at the current time. Most of OMV AG's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OMV AG's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OMV AG's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OMV AG to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.