CIMB SP Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction

P5P Etf   36.82  0.42  1.15%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CIMB SP Ethical on the next trading day is expected to be 35.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.14. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast CIMB SP's etf prices and determine the direction of CIMB SP Ethical's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
A naive forecasting model for CIMB SP is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of CIMB SP Ethical value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

CIMB SP Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CIMB SP Ethical on the next trading day is expected to be 35.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48, mean absolute percentage error of 0.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.14.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CIMB Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CIMB SP's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CIMB SP Etf Forecast Pattern

CIMB SP Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CIMB SP's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CIMB SP's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.21 and 36.41, respectively. We have considered CIMB SP's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
36.82
35.31
Expected Value
36.41
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CIMB SP etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CIMB SP etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.2004
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4776
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0124
SAESum of the absolute errors29.136
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of CIMB SP Ethical. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict CIMB SP. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for CIMB SP

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CIMB SP Ethical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CIMB SP's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.

Other Forecasting Options for CIMB SP

For every potential investor in CIMB, whether a beginner or expert, CIMB SP's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CIMB Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CIMB. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CIMB SP's price trends.

CIMB SP Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CIMB SP etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CIMB SP could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CIMB SP by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CIMB SP Ethical Technical and Predictive Analytics

The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CIMB SP's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CIMB SP's current price.

CIMB SP Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CIMB SP etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CIMB SP shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CIMB SP etf market strength indicators, traders can identify CIMB SP Ethical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CIMB SP Risk Indicators

The analysis of CIMB SP's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CIMB SP's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cimb etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

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