Pathfinder Bancorp Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| PBHC Stock | USD 17.10 0.90 5.00% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pathfinder Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 17.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.93. Pathfinder Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Pathfinder Bancorp stock prices and determine the direction of Pathfinder Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Pathfinder Bancorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Pathfinder |
Pathfinder Bancorp Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pathfinder Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 17.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pathfinder Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pathfinder Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pathfinder Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
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Pathfinder Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pathfinder Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pathfinder Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.43 and 19.93, respectively. We have considered Pathfinder Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pathfinder Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pathfinder Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0435 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2869 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0167 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.9293 |
Predictive Modules for Pathfinder Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pathfinder Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Pathfinder Bancorp
For every potential investor in Pathfinder, whether a beginner or expert, Pathfinder Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pathfinder Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pathfinder. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pathfinder Bancorp's price trends.Pathfinder Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pathfinder Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pathfinder Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pathfinder Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pathfinder Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Pathfinder Bancorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Pathfinder Bancorp's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pathfinder Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pathfinder Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pathfinder Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pathfinder Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pathfinder Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pathfinder Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pathfinder Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pathfinder Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pathfinder stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Variance | 7.37 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.23 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.58 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.00) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Pathfinder Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Pathfinder Bancorp's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Pathfinder Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Pathfinder Bancorp Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pathfinder Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Pathfinder Stock refer to our How to Trade Pathfinder Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Pathfinder Bancorp. If investors know Pathfinder will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Pathfinder Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0) | Dividend Share 0.39 | Earnings Share 0.32 | Revenue Per Share 5.834 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.57) |
The market value of Pathfinder Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Pathfinder that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Pathfinder Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Pathfinder Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Pathfinder Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Pathfinder Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Pathfinder Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Pathfinder Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Pathfinder Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.